On the Performance of Machine Learning Based Flight Delay Prediction – Investigating the Impact of Short-Term Features

  • Delia Schösser Technical University Dresden "Friedrich List", Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Institute of Transport and Economics
  • Jörn Schönberger Technical University Dresden "Friedrich List", Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Institute of Transport and Economics
Keywords: flight delay prediction, machine learning, aviation, feature importance, classification, SHAP

Abstract

People and companies today are connected around the world, which has led to a growing importance of the aviation industry. As flight delays are a big challenge in aviation, machine learning algorithms can be used to forecast those. This paper investigates the prediction of the occurrence of flight arrival delays with three promi-nent machine learning algorithms for a data set of do-mestic flights in the USA. The task is regarded as a clas-sification problem. The focus lies on the investigation of the influence of short-term features on the quality of the results. Therefore, three scenarios are created that are characterised by different input feature sets. When for-going the inclusion of short-term information in order to shift the prediction timing to an early point in time, an accuracy of 69.5% with a recall of 68.2% is achieved. By including information on the delay that the aircraft had on its previous flight, the prediction quality increases slightly. Hence, this is a compromise between the early prediction timing of the first model and the good predic-tion quality of the third model, where the departure delay of the aircraft is added as an input feature. In this case, an accuracy of 89.9% with a recall of 83.4% is obtained. The desired timing of prediction therefore determines which features to use as inputs since short-term features significantly improve the prediction quality.

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Published
2022-12-01
How to Cite
1.
Schösser D, Schönberger J. On the Performance of Machine Learning Based Flight Delay Prediction – Investigating the Impact of Short-Term Features. Promet [Internet]. 2022Dec.1 [cited 2023Jan.29];34(6):825-38. Available from: https://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/4132
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