Vehicle Lane-Changes Trajectory Prediction Model Considering External Parameters

  • Xuchuan Li Chang'an University
  • Lingkun Fan Chang’an University
  • Tao Chen Chang’an University
  • Shuaicong Guo Chang’an University
Keywords: trajectory prediction, external parameters, dynamic sensitive area, long-short term memory


The ability to predict the motion of vehicles is essential for autonomous vehicles. Aiming at the problem that existing models cannot make full use of the external parameters including the outline of vehicles and the lane, we proposed a model to use the external parameters thoroughly when predicting the trajectory in the straight-line and non-free flow state. Meanwhile, dynamic sensitive area is proposed to filter out inconsequential surrounding vehicles. The historical trajectory of the vehicles and their external parameters are used as inputs. A shared Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cell is proposed to encode the explicit states obtained by mapping historical trajectory and external parameters. The hidden states of vehicles obtained from the last step are used to extract latent driving intent. Then, a convolution layer is designed to fuse hidden states to feed into the next prediction circle and a decoder is used to decode the hidden states of the vehicles to predict trajectory. The experiment result shows that the dynamic sensitive area can shorten the training time to 75.86% of the state-of-the-art work. Compared with other models, the accuracy of our model is improved by 23.7%. Meanwhile, the model's ability of anti-interference of external parameters is also improved.


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How to Cite
Li X, Fan L, Chen T, Guo S. Vehicle Lane-Changes Trajectory Prediction Model Considering External Parameters. Promet [Internet]. 2021Oct.8 [cited 2022Aug.17];33(5):745-54. Available from: