Modelling the Modal Shift Effects of Converting a General Traffic Lane into a Dedicated Bus Lane

Keywords: bus lane, Mogridge’s Conjecture, modal shift, microsimulation, delay, bus lane warrants


This paper presents an analytical framework for evaluating the performance of dedicated bus lanes. It assumes that under a designated travel demand, the traffic volume on a corridor changes with the modal shifts. The modal shift affects the operations of both bus traffic and car traffic and eventually, an equilibrium bus share ratio that maximizes the performance of the corridor will be reached. Microsimulation modelling is employed to assess the traffic operations under various demand levels and bus share ratios. The results show that converting a general lane into a bus lane significantly reduces bus delay. For car traffic, the overall trend is that delay increases after converting a general lane to a bus lane. In addition, delay decreases with the increase of bus share ratio. Nevertheless, when bus share ratio reaches 0.6 (demand less than 10,000 passengers per hour, pph; or 0.8 when demand increases up to 14,000 pph), there is no significant difference in delay between the two scenarios. The identified bus share ratios have the potential to direct the development of bus lane warrants. Finally, this research recommends that the Transportation Demand Management (TDM) strategies shall be developed to stimulate the modal shifts towards the identified optimal bus share ratio.

Author Biographies

Guangchuan Yang, Institute of Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University

Postdoc Research Scholar, Institute of Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, U.S.A.

Daobin Wang, Wuhan University of Science and Technology

Associate Professor, School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China

Xuesong Mao, Wuhan University of Science and Technology

Professor, School of Information Science and Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China


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How to Cite
Yang G, Wang D, Mao X. Modelling the Modal Shift Effects of Converting a General Traffic Lane into a Dedicated Bus Lane. Promet [Internet]. 2020Sep.22 [cited 2023Feb.5];32(5):625-37. Available from: