Demand Forecast of NFC Mobile Users – A Case Study of Serbian Market

  • Bojan Stanivuković Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade
  • Valentina Radojičić Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade
  • Dejan Marković Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade
  • Mladenka Blagojević Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade
Keywords: fuzzy logic, Near Field Communication, mobile users, forecast

Abstract

Near Field Communication (NFC) is a very short-range type of radio communication that is compatible with other contactless communication technologies. It provides enormous possibilities, particularly given that it does not require any particular communication infrastructure. NFC technology has found possible application in contactless cards and mobile phone devices as a communication infrastructure which provides a platform for the development of NFC-based business services. This paper proposes a novel approach to forecasting the number of new users of NFC mobile phones based on fuzzy logic and the Norton-Bass diffusion model. The proposed approach is demonstrated through the case study.

Author Biographies

Bojan Stanivuković, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade

Bojan STANIVUKOVIĆ, PhD, Assistant Professor, University of Belgrade - The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Department of Postal and Telecommunication Traffic Engineering, Serbia. His main research of interests are access control policies, information system security and information protection in general. Before entering faculty duties, he was CEO of Post Bank in Serbia and National Savings Bank of Serbia. He was an early creator of electronic commerce tools, developing and operating large scale Internet and e-commerce products. Publications: Assistant Professor Stanivuković has supervised many scientific and research projects in area of postal, telecommunication and e-commerce services, author of more than 40 research and scientific articles, author of 1 books in area of electronic payment systems. His professional expertise, research and teaching interests include: research work in area of automatic processing, information systems, economic modeling and functional organization of communication services and network.

Valentina Radojičić, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade

Valentina RADOJIČIĆ, PhD, Full professor, University of Belgrade - The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering.  She is currently employed as a head of the Department of Telecommunication Traffic and Networks. She is researcher in many national and international projects, Member of National Society of Telecommunication, Symposium Chair Editor and Head of Program Committee PosTel (Symposium on Novel Technologies in Postal and Telecommunication Traffic). She is author/co-author of more than 90 research and scientific articles, one monograph and 2 books in the area of telecommunication service forecasting. Her professional expertise, research and teaching interests include: optimization problems in telecommunication network design and planning, network and traffic engineering, development of telecommunication services, strategic modeling of telecommunication network, forecasting of new telecommunication product/services, etc.

Dejan Marković, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade

Dejan MARKOVIĆ, PhD, Full professor, University  of Belgrade - The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Serbia. He is currently employed as a head of the Department of Postal Traffic and Networks. Apart from his faculty duties, he was engaged in research work for the technical planning and management of all postal services and networks. He is member of the managing board of the Regulatory Agency for Electronic Communication and Postal Services. Publications: Professor Marković has supervised many scientific and research projects in the area of postal and telecommunication services and traffic, author of more than 90 research and scientific articles, author of one monograph and 5 books in the area of postal traffic. His professional expertise, research and teaching interests include: postal services and sector, marketing, management, economic modeling and functional organization of postal network, regulations of postal sector.

Mladenka Blagojević, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade

Mladenka BLAGOJEVIĆ, PhD, Assistant Professor,  University of Belgrade - The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Department of Postal and Telecommunication Traffic, Serbia. Publications: author/co-author of number of scientific papers published in scientific journals or presented on national and international conferences. She is a member of the Organizing Committee and administrator of the Symposium on Novel Technologies in Postal and Telecommunication Traffic - PosTel. Also, she is a member of the Institute for Standardization of Serbia, area: Postal Services. Research interests: postal networks and services, marketing in postal and telecommunication traffic, regulations of postal sector.

References

[1] Pal D, Vanijja V, Papasratorn B. An Empirical Analysis towards the Adoption of NFC Mobile Payment System by the End User. Procedia Computer Science. 2015;69: 13-25.
[2] Slade EL, Williams MD, Dwivedi YK. Extending UTAUT2 to explore consumer adoption of mobile payments. In: Proceedings of the UK Academy for Information Systems Conference, Oxford; 2013.
[3] Amoroso DL, Magnier-Watanabe R. Building a research model for mobile wallet consumer adoption: the case of Mobile Suica in Japan. J. Theor. Appl. Electron. Commer. Res. 2012;7(1): 94-110.
[4] Dahlberg T, Guo J, Ondrus J. A critical review of mobile payment research. Electronic Commerce Research and Applications. 2015;14(5): 265-284.
[5] Oliveira T, Thomas M, Baptista G, Campos F. Mobile payment: Understanding the determinants of customer adoption and intention to recommend the technology. Computers in Human Behavior. 2016;61: 404-414.
[6] Ooi K-B, Tan GW-H. Mobile technology acceptance model: An investigation using mobile users to explore smartphone credit card. Expert Systems with Applications. 2016;59: 33-46.
[7] Leong L, Hew T, Tan GW-H, Ooi K-B. Predicting the determinants of the NFC-enabled mobile credit card acceptance: A neural networks approach. Expert Systems with Applications. 2013;40(14): 5604-5620.
[8] Pham TT, Ho J. The effects of product-related, personal-related factors and attractiveness of alternatives on consumer adoption of NFC-based mobile payments. Technology in Society. 2015;43: 159-172.
[9] RATEL. An Overview of the Telecom and Postal Services Market in the Republic of Serbia in 2015. Available from: http://www.ratel.rs/regulativa/analize_trzista.539.html
[10] Ecma International. Standard ECMA-352, Near Field Communication Interface and Protocol-2-2. Geneve: 2010. Available from: http://www.ecmainternational.org/publications/files/ECMA-ST/Ecma-352.pdf
[11] Madlmayr G, Langer J, Scharinger J. Managing an NFC Ecosystem. In: Proceedings of 7th International Conference on Mobile Business 2008 (ICMB 2008), Barcelona; 2008. p. 95-101.
[12] The Java Community Process. Available from: http://www.jcp.org /en/jsr/detail?id=257 (Accessed 09 November 2015)
[13] Rukzio E, Schmidt A, Hussmann H. Physical Posters as Gateways to Context-aware Services for Mobile Devices. In: Proceedings of Sixth IEEE Workshop on Mobile Computing Systems and Applications (WMCSA 2004). English Lake District, UK. IEEE; 2004. p. 10-19.
[14] Dahlberg T, Mallat N, Ondrus J, Zmijewska A. Past, present and future of mobile payments research: A literature review. Electronic Commerce Research and Applications. 2008;7(2): 165-181.
[15] Madureira A. Factors that hinder the success of SIMbased mobile NFC service deployments. Telematics and Informatics. 2017;34(1): 133-150.
[16] [16] Tagawa K. NFC: The Evolution Continues. NFC Forum, WIMA Monaco. Paper Presented at the 5th Global NFC Applications Products & Service Congress, Monaco; 2011.
[17] NFC Forum. Available from: http://www.NFC forum.org (Accessed 06 November 2015)
[18] Hassinen M. Utilizing national public-key infrastructure in mobile payment systems. Electronic Commerce Research and Applications. 2008;7(2): 214-231.
[19] NXP Semiconductors. Available from: http://www.nxp.com/ (Accessed 28 October 2015)
[20] Chidembo N. Exploring consumer adoption of NFC-enabled mobile payments in South Africa. Master thesis. University of Pretoria, South Africa; 2009.
[21] Madlmayr G, Langer J, Kantner C, Scharinger J. NFC devices: Security and privacy. In: Proceedings of the third international conference on availability, reliability and security, Barcelona; 2008. p. 642-647.
[22] Zadeh LA. Fuzzy sets. Information and Control. 1965;8: 338-353.
[23] Mamdani EH. Advances in the linguistic synthesis of fuzzy controllers. In: Mamdani EH, Gaines BR. (Eds.) Fuzzy Reasoning and its Applications. London, UK: Academic Press; 1981.
[24] Mamdani EH, Assilian S. Experiment in linguistic synthesis with a fuzzy logic controller. International Journal of Man-Machine Studies. 1975;7: 1-13.
[25] Tettamanzi A, Carlesi M, Pannese L, Santalmasi M. Business Intelligence for Strategic Marketing: Predictive Modelling of Customer Behaviour Using Fuzzy Logic and Evolutionary Algorithms. In: Giacobini M, et al. (Eds.) Applications of Evolutionary Computing. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg; 2007. p. 233-240.
[26] Escoda A, Ortega A, Sanz A, Herms A. Demand forecast by neuro-fuzzy techniques. In: Proceedings of the Sixth IEEE International Conference, Barcelona. IEEE; 1997. p. 1381-1386.
[27] Guiffrida I, Nagi R. Fuzzy set theory applications in production management research: A literature survey. Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing. 1998;9: 39-56.
[28] Radojičić V, Marković G, Bakmaz B. New Diffusion Model with Variable Market Potential. In: Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Telecommunications in Modern Satellite, Cable and Broadcasting Services (TELSIKS), Niš, Serbia. IEEE; 2011. p. 637-640.
[29] Bass F. A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables. Management Science. 1969;15(1): 215-227.
[30] Mahajan V, Peterson R. Models for Innovation Diffusion. Newbury Park, CA: Sage; 1985.
[31] Meade N, Islam T. Modelling and forecasting the diffusion innovation – A 25-year review. International Journal of Forecasting. 2006;22(3): 519-545.
[32] Kim N, Chang DR, Shocker AD. Modelling intercategory and generational dynamic for a growing information technology industry. Management Science. 2000;46(4): 496-512.
[33] Mahajan V, Muller E. Timing, diffusion, and substitution of successive generations of technological innovations: The IBM mainframe case. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 1996;51(2): 109-132.
[34] Norton JA, Bass FM. Evolution of Technological Generations: The Law of Capture. Sloan Management Review. 1992;33: 66-77.
[35] Pae JH, Lehmann DR. Multigeneration innovation diffusion: The impact of intergeneration time. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science. 2003;31(1): 36-45.
[36] Dereli T, Durmusoglu A, Daim T. Buyer/seller collaboration through measurement of beliefs on innovativeness of products. Computers in Industry. 2011;62: 205-212.
[37] Norton JA, Bass FM. A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High Technology Product. Management Science. 1987;33: 1069-1086.
[38] Teodorović D, Šelmić M. Computer Intelligence in Traffic. [in Serbian]. Belgrade: Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering; 2012.
[39] Green K, Armstrong S, Graefe A. Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared. The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2007;8: 17-20.
[40] Radojičić V, Marković G, Janković M, Drašković B. Broadband Traffic Forecasting in the Transport Network. Promet – Traffic & Transportation. 2012;24(4): 275-284.
[41] Radojičić V, Bakmaz B. The application of quantitative methods of forecasting in telecommunications [in Serbian]. Belgrade: Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering; 2010.
[42] Satoh DA. Discrete Bass Model and its Parameter Estimation. Journal of the Operations Research. Society of Japan. 2001;44(1): 1-18.
[43] Hamilton JD. Time Series Analysis. Vol. 2. Princeton: Princeton University Press; 1994.
[44] Lewis CD. International and Business Forecasting Methods. London: Butterworths; 1982.
[45] Montgomery DC, Peck EA, Vining GG. Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis. 3rd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 2001.
Published
2018-10-22
How to Cite
1.
Stanivuković B, Radojičić V, Marković D, Blagojević M. Demand Forecast of NFC Mobile Users – A Case Study of Serbian Market. Promet - Traffic & Transportation [Internet]. 22Oct.2018 [cited 12Dec.2018];30(5):513-24. Available from: https://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/2683
Section
Articles