A Hybrid Short-term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on Neural Networks Combined with K-Nearest Neighbor

  • Zhao Liu Southeast University
  • Jianhua Guo Southeast University
  • Jinde Cao Southeast University
  • Yun Wei Beijing Urban Construction Design and Development Group Co., Ltd
  • Wei Huang Southeast University
Keywords: short-term traffic flow forecasting, neural networks, K-nearest neighbor, traffic pattern

Abstract

It is critical to implement accurate short-term traffic forecasting in traffic management and control applications. This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting method based on neural networks combined with the K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) method for short-term traffic flow forecasting. The procedure of training a neural network model using existing traffic input-output data, i.e., training data, is indispensable for fine-tuning the prediction model. Based on this point, the K-NN method was employed to reconstruct the training data for neural network models while considering the similarity of traffic flow patterns. This was done through collecting the specific state vectors that were closest to the current state vectors from the historical database to enhance the relationship between the inputs and outputs for the neural network models. In this study, we selected four different neural network models, i.e., back-propagation (BP) neural network, radial basis function (RBF) neural network, generalized regression (GR) neural network, and Elman neural network, all of which have been widely applied for short-term traffic forecasting. Using real world traffic data, the  experimental results primarily show that the BP and GR neural networks combined with the K-NN method have better prediction performance, and both are sensitive to the size of the training data. Secondly, the forecast accuracies of the RBF and Elman neural networks combined with the K-NN method both remain fairly stable with the increasing size of the training data. In summary, the proposed hybrid forecasting  approach outperforms the conventional forecasting models, facilitating the implementation of short-term  traffic forecasting in traffic management and control applications.

Author Biographies

Zhao Liu, Southeast University
Zhao Liu is a PhD.student in the School of Transportation, Southeast University.
Jianhua Guo, Southeast University
Dr. Guo, Jianhua is a professor in Transportation Engineering at the Intelligent Transportation System Research Center of the Southeast University. His major research fields include intelligent transportation system applications, traffic management and control, statistical time series analysis, and discrete choice modeling.
Jinde Cao, Southeast University
Jinde Cao (M’07-SM’07-F’16) is a Distinguished Professor, the Dean of School of Mathematics and the Director of the Research Center for Complex Systems and Network Sciences at Southeast University.
Yun Wei, Beijing Urban Construction Design and Development Group Co., Ltd
He is the vice director of the Urban Railway Green and Safe Construction National Engineering Laboratory.  He is majoring in traffic information engineering and control and his research field includes intelligent vision analysis and pattern recognition.
Wei Huang, Southeast University
Wei Huang is a distinguished professor in Civil Engineer at the Intelligent Transportation System Research Center of the Southeast University.  He is a member of Chinese Academy of Engineering.  He enjoys the State Council special allowance and receives supports from the New Century Talent Program, the National Outstanding Mid-aged Experts Program, the National Talents Engineering Program, and the Yangtze Scholar Program from various agencies and organizations.

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Published
2018-08-30
How to Cite
1.
Liu Z, Guo J, Cao J, Wei Y, Huang W. A Hybrid Short-term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on Neural Networks Combined with K-Nearest Neighbor. Promet - Traffic&Transportation. 2018;30(4):445-56. DOI: 10.7307/ptt.v30i4.2651
Section
Articles

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