Contribution to Accident Prediction Models Development for Rural Two-Lane Roads in Serbia

  • Draženko Glavić University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
  • Miloš Mladenović Aalto University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  • Aleksandar Stevanovic Florida Atlantic University
  • Vladan Tubić University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
  • Marina Milenković University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
  • Marijo Vidas University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
DOI: https://doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v28i4.1908
Keywords: road accident modelling, traffic safety, traffic characteristics, road characteristics, regression analysis,

Abstract

Over the last three decades numerous research efforts have been conducted worldwide to determine the relationship between traffic accidents and traffic and road characteristics. So far, the mentioned studies have not been carried out in Serbia and in the region. This paper represents one of the first attempts to develop accident prediction models in Serbia. The paper provides a comprehensive literature review, describes procedures for collection and analysis of the traffic accident data, as well as the methodology used to develop the accident prediction models. The paper presents models obtained by both univariate and multivariate regression analyses. The obtained results are compared to the results of other studies and comparisons are discussed. Finally, the paper presents conclusions and important points for future research. The results of this research can find theoretical as well as practical application.

Author Biographiesaaa replica rolex repwatches replica rolex watches for men replica iwc watch

Draženko Glavić, University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering

Drazenko Glavic is an assistant professor at the Department for Traffic Engineering at University of Belgrade in Serbia. He is a leading South East Europe expert in transport economy, feasibility studies, and traffic analysis, with 18 years of experience and over 120 studies.

Miloš Mladenović, Aalto University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Milos N. Mladenovic is an assistant professor at Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Aalto University in Finland. His research areas include transportation infrastructure management, decision-making and decision-support systems, transportation planning, and sustainable transportation systems.

Aleksandar Stevanovic, Florida Atlantic University
Aleksandar Stevanovic is an assistant professor of Civil, Environmental and Geomatics Engineering at Florida Atlantic University, and a licensed Professional Engineer in the state of Utah. His main research areas include traffic operations, intelligent transportation systems, and infrastructure evaluation.
Vladan Tubić, University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
Vladan Tubic is an assistant professor at the Department for Traffic Engineering at University of Belgrade in Serbia. His main research areas include traffic analysis, traffic flow theory, traffic safety analysis.
Marina Milenković, University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering

Marina Milenkovic is an teaching assistant at the Department for Traffic Engineering at University of Belgrade in Serbia. Her main research areas include traffic safety analysis and road operation and management.

Marijo Vidas, University of Belgrade, The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
Marijo Vidas is an teaching assistant at the Department for Traffic Engineering at University of Belgrade in Serbia. His main research areas include traffic analysis, traffic flow theory, traffic safety analysis.

References

Aurelio M, Paolo P, Nicola F. Evaluation of the applicability of IHSDM Crash Prediction Module on Italian two-lane rural roads. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 2012;53:933-942.

Lord D, Persaud BN. Accident Prediction Models With and Without Trend: Application of the Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) Procedure. Transportation Research Board, Paper No. 00-0496; Washington, D.C.; 2000.

Matthew GK, Golias I. Effects of road geometry and traffic volumes on rural roadway accident rates. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2002;34(3):357-365.

Polus A, Cohen M. A new, non-canonical Poisson regression model for the prediction of crashes on low-volume rural roads. IATSS Research. 2012;35 (2):98-103.

Joshua S, Garber N. Estimating truck accident rate and involvement using linear and Poisson regression models. Transportation Planning and Technology. 1990;15(1):41-58.

Milton J, Mannering F. The relationship among highway geometrics, traffic-related elements and motor-vehicle accident frequencies. Transportation. 1998;25(4):395-413.

Ackaah W, Salifu M. Crash prediction model for twolane rural highways in the Ashanti region of Ghana. IATSS Research. 2011;35(1):34-40.

Fletcher JP, Baguley CJ, Sexton B, Done S. Road accident modelling for highways development and management in developing countries. Main Report: Trials in India and Tanzania, Project Report No: PPR095; 2006.

Kulmala R, Roine M. Accident Prediction Models for Two-Lane roads in Finland. Proceedings of the Conference on Traffic Safety Theory and Research Methods, Session 4: Statistical Analysis and Models. Amsterdam, Netherland; 1988. p. 48-61.

Zegeer C, Reinfurt D, Hunter W, Hummer J, Stewart R, Herf L. Accident Effects of Sideslope and Other Roadside Features on Two-Lane Roads. Transportation Research Record 1995; 1988.

Kalakota KR, Seneviratne PN. Accident Prediction Models for Two-Lane Rural Highways. Utah Transportation Center. Utah State University; 1994.

Hadi MA, Aruldhas J, Chow L, Wattleworth JA. Estimating Safety Effects of Cross-Section Design for Various Highway Types Using Negative Binomial Regression. Transportation Research Record. 1995;1500:169-177.

Mountain L, Fawaz B, Jarrett D. Accident prediction models for roads with minor junctions. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 1996;28(6):695-707.

Vogt A, Bared JG. Accident Models for Two-Lane Rural Roads: Segments and Intersections. Publication No. FHWA-RD-98-133, Federal Highway Administration, McLean, Va.; 1998.

Harwood DW, Council FM, Hauer E, Hughes WE, Vog A. Prediction of the Expected Safety Performance of Rural Two-Lane Highways. Publication No. FHWA-RD-99-207, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation; 2000.

Cardoso JL. Design Consistency and Signing of Curves on Interurban Single Carriageway Roads. Report No. 197/01-NTSR, LNEC, Lisboa; 2001.

Cardoso JL. Detection and Low-Cost Engineering Improvement of Inconsistent Horizontal Curves in Rural Roads. Proceedings of the 12th International conference: Road safety on three continents; 2001 Sep 19-21; Moscow, Russia.

Pardillo Mayora JM, Llamas Rubio R. Relevant Variables for Crash Rate Prediction in Spain’s Two Lane Rural Roads. Proceedings of the 82nd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting; 2003 Jan 12-16; Washington, D.C., USA.

Qin X, Ivan JN, Ravishanker N. Selecting Exposure Measures in Crash Rate Prediction for Two-Lane Highway Segments. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2004;36(2):183-191.

Fitzpatrick K, Schneider WH, Park ES. Comparisons of Crashes on Rural Two-Lane and Four-Lane Highways in Texas. Report No. FHWA/TX-06/0-4618-1. Texas Transportation Institute; 2005.

Cafiso S, Di Graziano A, Di Silvestro G. Development of comprehensive accident models for two-lane rural highways using exposure, geometry, consistency and context variables. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2010;42(4):1072-1079.

Geedipally SR, Patil S, Lord D. Examination of methods to estimate crashcounts by collision type. Transport. Res. Rec.: J. Transport. Res. Board. 2010;2165(1):12-20.

American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO). Highway Safety Manual, 1st Edition, Volume 2; 2010.

Dinu RR, Veeraragavan A. Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India. Journal of Safety Research. 2011;42(1):39-42.

Turner S, Singh R, Nates G. The next generation of rurral road crash prediction models: final report. NZ Transport Agency research report 509; 2012.

Deublein M, Schubert M, Adey BT, Kohler J, Faber MH. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach. Accident Analysis and Prevention. 2013;51:274-291.

Hosseinpour M, Yahaya AS, Sadullah AF. Exploring the effects of roadway characteristics on the frequency andseverity of head-on crashes: Case studies from Malaysian Federal Roads. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2014;62:209-222.

Ivanović M. The influence of road elements on the consequences of traffic accidents [PhD thesis] [in Serbian]. The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade; 1970.

Zegeer CV, Reinfurt D, Hummer J, Herf L, Hunter W. Safety Effect of Cross-section Design for Two-Lane Roads. Report No. FHWA-RD-87/008. Federal, Highway Administration, McLean, VA; 1987.

Labi S. Effects of Geometric Characteristics of Rural Two-Lane Roads on Safety. Report No. FHWA/IN/JTRP-2005/2. Center for the Advancement of Transportation Safety (CATS); 2006.

Garber NJ, Haas PR, Gosse C. Development of Safety Performance Functions for Two-Lane Roads Maintained by the Virginia Department of Transportation. Report No. FHWA/VTRC 10-R25. Virginia Transportation Research Council; 2010.

Hiselius LW. Estimating the Relationship Between Accident Frequency and Homogeneous and Inhomogeneous Traffic Flows. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 2004;36(6):985-992.

Elvik R, Vaa T. The Handbook of Road Safety Measures. Elsevier Science; 2004.

Lamm R, Psarianos B, Mailaender T. Highway design and traffic safety engineering handbook. New York: McGraw-Hill; 1999.

Krebs HG, Kloeckner JH, Bruehning E. Investigations of the effects of highway and traffic conditions outside built-up areas on accident rates [in German]. Research Road Construction and Road Traffic Technique. Ministry of Transportation, Germany; 1977.

Iyinam AF. Analysis of Relationship Between Highway Safety and Road Geometric Design Elements: Turkish Case [PhD thesis]. ITU Institute of Science and Technology; 1997.

Permanent International Association of Road Congresses (PIARC). Road Safety Manual; 2003.

Miaou SP. Vertical Grade Analysis Summary. Unpublished Technical Memorandum to FHWA; 1998.

Published
2016-08-31
How to Cite
1.
Glavić D, Mladenović M, Stevanovic A, Tubić V, Milenković M, Vidas M. Contribution to Accident Prediction Models Development for Rural Two-Lane Roads in Serbia. Promet [Internet]. 2016Aug.31 [cited 2024Dec.3];28(4):415-24. Available from: https://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/1908
Issue
Vol 28 No 4 (2016)
Section
Articles

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  • Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
  • Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
  • Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).

Most read articles by the same author(s)