A Survey on Ship Collision Risk Evaluation

  • Qingyang Xu School of Mechanical, Electrical & Information Engineering, Shandong University, Weihai
  • Ning Wang Marine Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian
Keywords: collision risk, collision avoidance, ship domain, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,


Recently, ship collision avoidance has become essential due to the emergence of special vessels like chemical tankers and VLCCs (very large crude carriers), etc. The information needed for safe navigation is obtained by combining electrical equipment with real-time visual information. However, misjudgements and human errors are the major cause of ship collisions according to research data. The decision support system of Collision avoidance is an advantageous facility to make up for this. Collision risk evaluation is one of the most important problems in collision avoidance decision supporting system. A review is presented of different approaches to evaluate the collision risk in maritime transportation. In such a context, the basic concepts and definitions of collision risk and their evaluation are described. The review focuses on three categories of numerical models of collision risk calculation: methods based on traffic flow theory, ship domain and methods based on dCPA and tCPA.


Corovic BM, Djurovic P. Research of marine accidents through the prism of human factors. Promet-Traffic & Transportation. 2013;25(4):369-377.

Rudan I, Komadina P, Ivče R. Officers’Subjective Near Miss Notion in Situations of Collision Avoidance at Sea. PROMET-Traffic&Transportation. 2012;24(4):317-322.

Tam C, Bucknall R. Collision risk assessment for ships. Journal of Marine Science and Technology. 2010;15(3): 257-270.

Cockcroft AN. The Estimation of Collision Risk for Marine Traffic. Journal of Navigation. 1981;34(01):145-147.

Goodwin EM. Marine encounter rates. Journal of Navigation. 1978;31(03):357-369.

Fujii Y, Yamanouchi H. The distribution of collisions in Japan and methods of estimating collision damage. Journal of Navigation. 1973;26(01):108-113.

Barratt MJ. Encounter rates in a marine traffic separation scheme. Journal of Navigation. 1973;26(4):458-465.

Brok JFC, van der Vet RP. A Method for the Analysis and Processing of Marine Collision Data. The Journal of Navigation. 1984;37:49-59.

Fujii Y, Tanaka K. Traffic capacity. Journal of Navigation. 1971;24(4):543-552.

Coldwell TG. Marine traffic behaviour in restricted waters. Journal of Navigation. 1983;36(3):430-444.

Goodwin EM. A statistical study of ship domains. Journal of Navigation. 1975;28(03):328-344.

Davis PV, Dove MJ, Stockel CT. Computer simulation of multi-ship encounters. Journal of Navigation. 1982;35(2):347-352.

Davis PV, Dove MJ, Stockel CT. A computer simulation of marine traffic using domains and arenas. Journal of Navigation. 1980;33(1):215-222.

Švetak J. Estimation of ship domain zone. PROMET-Traffic&Transportation. 2009;21(1):1-6.

Zadeh LA. Fuzzy sets. Information and control. 1965;8(3):338-353.

Zhao J, Wu Z, Wang F. Comments on ship domains. Journal of Navigation. 1993;46(03):422-436.

Pietrzykowski Z. Ship’s Fuzzy Domain – a Criterion for Navigational Safety in Narrow Fairways. Journal of Navigation. 2008;61(03).

Smierzchalski R, Michalewicz Z. Modeling of ship trajectory in collision situations by an evolutionary algorithm. IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation. 2000;4(3):227-241.

Pietrzykowski Z. The analysis of a ship fuzzy domain in a restricted area. IFAC Conference on Control Applications in Marine Systems. Glasgow, Scotland; 2002. p. 45-50.

Szlapczynski R. A Unified Measure Of Collision Risk Derived From The Concept Of A Ship Domain. Journal of Navigation. 2006;59(03).

Wang N, Meng X, Xu Q, Wang Z. A Unified Analytical Framework for Ship Domains. Journal of Navigation. 2009;62(4):643-655.

Švetak J, Jakomin L. Model of Optimal Collision Avoidance Manoeuvre on the Basis of Electronic Data Collection. Promet-Traffic&Transportation. 2005;17(6):295-302.

Computer programs for collision avoidance and traffic keeping. Conference on mathematical aspects of marine traffic. London, UK; 1977. p. 229-242.

Imazu H, Koyama T. Study on the critical range by course changing manoeuver. Japan Institute Navigation Journal. 1990;82:77-85.

James MK. Modelling the decision process in computer simulation of ship navigation. Journal of Navigation. 1986;39(01):32-48.

Hasegawa K, Kouzuki A, Muramatsu T, Komine H, Watabe Y. Ship auto-navigation fuzzy expert system (SAFES). Journal of the Society of Naval Architecture of Japan. 1989;166.

Yao J, Fang X, Wu Z. Comparative Studies of the Different Ship Collision Risk Assessment Systems. Journal of Dalian Fisheries University. 1999;14(1):37.

Sii HS, Ruxton T, Wang J. A fuzzy-logic-based approach to qualitative safety modelling for marine systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. 2001;73(1):19-34.

Hwang C. The Integrated Design of Fuzzy Collision-Avoidance and H[infty infinity]-Autopilots on Ships. Journal of Navigation. 2002;55(1):117-136.

Yao J, Ren Y, Wu Z, Fang X. Fuzzy identification method for collision risk assessment of multi-ships encounter situation. Journal of Dalian Fisheries University. 2002;17(4):313-317.

Liu Y, Sun H. A Risk-Degree Model of Collis ion Based on Fuzzy Theory. Navigation of China. 1998;43(2):23-29.

Zheng D. Judge of criticality when watercraft encounters. Journal of Dalian Maritime University. 2002;28(2):14-17.

Yan Q. A Model for Estimating the Risk Degrees of Collisions. Journal of Wuhan University of Technology (Transportation Science & Engineering). 2002;26(2):220-222.

Wu Z, Zheng Z. Time collision risk and its model. Journal of Dalian Maritime University. 2001;27(2):1-5.

Zheng Z, Wu Z. Space collision risk and its model. Journal of Dalian Maritime University. 2001;27(4):1-4,10.

Szlapczynski R. Evolutionary Sets of Safe Ship Trajectories Within Traffic Separation Schemes. Journal of Navigation. 2013;66(1):65-81.

Liu YH, Shi CJ. A fuzzy-neural inference network for ship collision avoidance. Proceedings of 2005 International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics. 2005;4754-4759.

Wang N. A Novel Analytical Framework for Dynamic Quaternion Ship Domains. Journal of Navigation. 2013;1(1):1-17.

Chin HC, Debnath AK. Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation. Safety Science. 2009;47(10):1410-1416.

How to Cite
Xu Q, Wang N. A Survey on Ship Collision Risk Evaluation. Promet [Internet]. 2014Dec.30 [cited 2024Apr.23];26(6):475-86. Available from: https://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/1386