COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF CARGO FLOWS ON BRANCHES VB AND VC OF THE PAN-EUROPEAN CORRIDOR V

Pan-European Corridor V that passes through the territory of the Republic of Croatia, i.e. Branches VB (Rijeka-Zagreb-Budapest) i VC (Budapest-Osijek-Sarajevo-Ploèe) are of extreme importance for the traffic and economic system of the Republic of Croatia and the wider European area. Taking this into consideration, this study has analysed the relevant indicators of the traffic growth, structure and dynamics of the cargo flows on the Branches VB and VC of the Pan-European Corridor V. The cargo flows, as important elements of the traffic demand have been analysed regarding the presence of competition of alternative North-Adriatic and North-European traffic routes as important element of competitive environment in fighting to attract valuable transit market of Central Europe. Based on a detailed analysis of concrete statistical data, significant conclusions are derived about: quantity, dynamics and structure of the cargo flows, current traffic demand, competitiveness of corridors on Central European transit market, expected traffic demand, and conclusions about factors and circumstances that would positively, i.e. negatively affect the growth of cargo flows, and thus also the valorisation of the analysed Branches VB and VC of the Pan-European Corridor V within the European envi-


INTRODUCTION
The Pan-European Corridor V and the respective Branches V B (Rijeka-Zagreb-Budapest) and V C (Budapest-Osijek-Sarajevo-Ploèe) are transversal routes which, including the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe and the respective road and rail communica-tions, provides the traffic connection of the Central European area with the Adriatic and the wider Mediterranean area.Consequently, there is no need to emphasise particularly the geo-traffic and economic significance of the cargo flows formed on Branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor V, nor the significance of their valorisation within the integration of the Republic of Croatia into the European traffic and economic system.
Therefore, the basic aim of research in this paper is the analysis of the relevant indicators of forming the cargo flows on the Branches V B and V C of the Pan--European Corridor V, as important indicators of the traffic demand, including also the competitiveness of the mentioned traffic routes on the valuable transit market.
Although the hypothesis of the important geo-traffic significance of the Branches V B and V C as vital Croatian traffic routes has been emphasised in many studies of this topic, the basic contribution of this research is that the competitiveness of the mentioned Branches of the Pan-European Corridor V is analysed, elaborated and commented based on the concrete statistical data about the intensity, structure and dynamics of the respective cargo flows.Besides, significant conclusions about the strategic market segment of Branches V B and V C of corridor V, and their competitiveness regarding the existence of alternative traffic routes in attracting the cargo flows, result from the analysis of concrete macro-economic indicatorsforeign trade of the Republic of Croatia and the overseas trade of the European countries.
As relevant indicators of traffic demand on the analysed traffic routes, the intensity, dynamics and structure of the cargo flows that circulate through the strategic transit points of these corridors -the Ports of Rijeka and Ploèe, are analysed in particular.Based on the analysis, this research makes significant conclusions about the expected traffic demand and the factors and circumstances that could positively, i.e. negatively affect the growth and the structure of cargo flows on the analysed branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor V, and thus also their valorisation in the competitive European environment, respecting at the same time the existing as well as forecast constellations on the traffic services market.

INDICATORS OF CARGO FLOWS GENERATION ON BRANCHES V B AND V C OF PAN-EUROPEAN CORRIDOR V
One of the basic principles of the traffic policy is the one that emphasises the interconnection of traffic and the economic system [1].Therefore, this part of research analyses the foreign trade of the Republic of Croatia and the overseas trade of the European countries as relevant indicators of forming the cargo flows on Branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor V.

Foreign trade of the Republic of Croatia
Branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor V represent vital traffic routes of the Republic of Croatia in the traffic connection of Croatia with a wider European region.Regarding the direct and wider European area that gravitates to these corridors, the analysis of the intensity, dynamics, values and directions of Croatian cargo flows towards the European regions and economic groups of countries is very interesting.The structure of the goods exchange of Croatia, i.e. the conclusions about its intensity towards single groups of countries can be, conditionally speaking, considered indicative for the orientation of the goods flows on the analysed traffic routes.
Table 1 shows that in 2006 about 73% of Croatian goods exchange referred to the trade with developed countries, out of which 64% of the trade value was realized with the European Union countries.With the developing countries 27% of the total goods exchange was realized, out of which about 6% with the countries signatories of the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA).
The total value of the goods exchange of Croatia in 2006 was about 32 million euro, and it was by about 16% greater than the exchange realized in the previous year.Out of this over 85% of goods exchange was realized with the European countries [10].Judging by this, the forming of the vital Croatian cargo flows on Branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor V are greatly affected by the foreign trade of Croatia with the European countries, particularly with the countries of the European Union and CEFTA, and these Branches of Corridor V are the traffic routes of extreme traffic and economic significance for the Republic of Croatia and the mentioned European group.
In order to define precisely the relations which generate valuable cargo flows, Table 2 shows the value of the goods exchange of the Republic of Croatia towards the most valuable trade partners in 2006.
According to data in  and Austria, as well as Serbia and Montenegro.In the same year, the biggest trade partners according to the origin of the Croatian import were: Italy, Germany, Russia, Slovenia, Austria, B&H.On the basis of these data, the biggest value of foreign trade of the Republic of Croatia is realized with the countries in the close and wider hinterland of the Ports of Rijeka and Ploèe.Since the mentioned main foreign trade partners of the Republic of Croatia include countries with which Croatia is connected by the Branches of the Pan-European Corridor V -V B and V C , this is another argument that speaks in favour of the importance of the mentioned corridors, not only for the traffic and the entire economic system of the Republic of Croatia, but rather for the wider European environment as well.
If among the main trade partners of the Republic of Croatia those countries that have their own access to the sea through their own ports, or have some other European port closer to them, are excluded, then special significance for the Branches V B and V C is on the markets i.e. overseas trade of the following Central European countries: Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina.Taking this into consideration, one should not forget the significant value of the foreign trade of the Republic of Croatia with overseas and economically developed countries such as China and USA, which means that Branches of the Corridor V -V B and V C are significant transit routes for the goods flows that circulate on the relations of the mentioned overseas countries to Central European and East European countries.

Analysis of foreign trade and overseas trade of the European countries
The analysis of the orientation and the value of the foreign trade of the European countries, main trade partners of Croatia is indicative of the volume and orientation of the cargo flows and an indicator of the presence of the competitive routes (ports) when considering the overseas trade of these countries.Therefore, this part of research analyses the foreign trade and overseas trade of the Central European countries that are landlocked and that are therefore naturally oriented to the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe, i.e. the North Adriatic and South Adriatic traffic routes.
According to the data about the realized goods exchange of Croatia in 2006 (Table 2), one may discuss the share of individual European countries in the total value of the foreign trade of Croatia.Thus, regarding the European countries as trade partners of Croatia the highest value of the goods exchange was realized with Italy (21%), Germany (16%), Slovenia (9%), Russia (8%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (7%), Austria (7%), Hungary (3%), the Czech Republic (2%) and Slovakia (1%).
Regardless of the share of the goods exchange value with which the mentioned countries trade partners participate in the total exchange of Croatia, a significant fact is the share of Croatia in the total foreign trade and overseas trade of the analysed European countries, especially regarding the presence of the competitive North European and North Adriatic ports and the alternative traffic routes which may be used by these countries to realize the goods exchange.This fact is a valuable indicator of the intensity (volume) of the cargo flows from the European countries towards the Ports of Rijeka and Ploèe, i.e. an indicator of the intensity of the cargo flows on the Branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor V. Consequently, it should be briefly emphasised that Croatia has a minor share in the total foreign trade of Hungary (5%), Slovakia (1%), the Czech Republic (0.9%) and eventually Austria (0.5%) [11].Judging by the small share of Croatia in the goods exchange of the analyzed European countries, it is interesting to determine the main trade partners of these countries.Thus the main partners of Austria are mainly the European Union countries realizing 99.3 billion euro or 54% of trade (out of this 56% with Germany, 7% with Italy, 4% with France, 1.3% with the Netherlands).About 33% of the trade of Austria was realized with Asia, 4.5% with North America, 4.1% with EFTA countries (Hungary -3%, the Czech Republic -2.7%, Slovenia -0.8%, Slovakia -1.4%, Russia -1.3%, Poland -1.2%, Slovenia -1.3%, Rumania -0.9%, Croatia -1.4%, Ukraine -0.4%, Bulgaria -0.2%).About 60% of foreign trade of the Czech Republic is oriented to the European Union member countries, and about 20% to the transition countries.The most significant countries, trade partners of Slovakia are: Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy, Austria, Poland, Hungary, France, and Slovakia.The most significant countries trade partners of Hungary are: Germany, Austria, Italy, France, USA, Russia, Great Britain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Japan.The most significant countries partners of B&H are: Germany, the Czech Republic, Italy, Austria, Poland, Hungary, and France.
Consequently, it may be concluded that the majority of the foreign trade of the analysed European countries is realized with other European Union member countries.It may also be assumed that progressive connecting of the West and the East as part of the European Union enlargement is reflected not only on the foreign trade of the European countries, but also on the traffic between Central and Central-Eastern Europe with overseas countries, directing it towards the ports of Northern Europe, and not to geographically closer ports of the Northern Adriatic.
It is, namely, in the circumstances of insufficient traffic infrastructure and diversion of traffic from the routes that they should follow naturally, that there is very large overseas turnover of the countries of Central and Central-Eastern Europe towards the ports of Northern Europe, although these are twice as far from the ports of the North and South Adriatic.This is also proven by the concrete data on the orientation of the transit traffic of the Central European countries to the North Adriatic and South Adriatic ports [3].According to these data the share of the North European ports in the transit traffic of Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary is progressively growing from year to year.Out of the total overseas traffic of Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, as much as 61% of cargo is oriented to the ports of Northern Europe, and 39% to the North Adriatic ports.The overseas trade of the Czech Republic and Slovakia is oriented to North European ports, whereas Austria (bordering on Slovenia and Italy) and Hungary (bordering on Slovenia and Croatia) are still oriented to the ports of the North Adriatic.
The continuation in the growing tendency of the share of the North European ports in the transit traffic of Central European countries might, conditionally speaking, result in a situation in which the entire transit traffic of Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary and other Central European countries could be directed to the North European ports, instead of the North Adriatic and South Adriatic traffic route, which would have significant influence on the intensity of cargo flows on the Branches V B and V C of the Corridor V.However, if one considers that the Republic of Croatia is soon to integrate into the European Union, as well as considering the planned investments into the capacities of the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe, and the respective Branches V B and V C of the Corridor V, it is to be expected that the described lack of balance will certainly be corrected in favour of higher intensity and valuable structure of the cargo flows on the mentioned traffic routes.

INTENSITY, STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF CARGO FLOWS ON BRANCHES V B AND V C OF PAN-EUROPEAN CORRIDOR V
The intensity, structure and dynamics of cargo flows on Branch V B (Rijeka-Zagreb-Budapest) and Branch Vc (Ploèe-Sarajevo-Osijek-Budapest) of the Pan-European Corridor V, are greatly conditioned by the traffic at the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe as significant origin (transit) points of the mentioned corridors.The cargo flows, namely, from the direct and wider European catchment area towards the ports of Rijeka and Ploèe and vice versa, directly affect the formation of cargo flows on the mentioned branches of Corridor V. Therefore, further in the text the turnover of the ports of Rijeka and Ploèe is analysed and the strategic market which gravitates to the analysed corridors in the geo-traffic sense is defined depending on the volume, structure, and orientation of the goods flows through the mentioned ports.

Analysis of turnover at the ports of Rijeka and Ploèe as strategic points of Branches V B and V C of Pan-European Corridor V
The Port of Rijeka is the biggest Croatian port which has no major competition within the Croatian port system.The reason lies in the fact that the Port of Rijeka has been realizing a turnover that for a number of years in the total cargo traffic of all the Adriatic ports has accounted for more than 50%.Concretely, judging by the data in Table 3, in the total realized cargo traffic in the ports of special economic significance for the Republic of Croatia, the Port of Rijeka accounts for about 70%.This is at the same time an important argument for the claim that the Branch of the Pan-European Corridor V -V B (Rijeka transport route) represents a land-sea traffic route of vital significance for the traffic and economic system of Croatia.
On the contrary, the Port of Ploèe, although it is beyond comparison to the Port of Rijeka, with about 20% of share in the total port cargo traffic of Croatia, represents the second important port in the Croatian port system.Consequently, it is justified to state that Branch V C is an important Croatian route that, passing, although just a minor section, through the territory of the Republic of Croatia (compared to Branch V B ), plays a significant role for the overseas trade of countries in the close and wider European hinterland via the Port of Ploèe.
In favour of emphasising the importance of the transit role of the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe, and the respective corridors, it should be emphasised that a significant part of cargo traffic of the sea ports of Croatia, as much as 37% refers to transit traffic, whereas 39% refers to import and 24% to export [19].Similarly, the transit traffic forms the main part of the turnover at the Port of Rijeka (about 75%) and the Port of Ploèe (about 84%), and it is justified to consider the mentioned ports as important transit ports which accommodate valuable cargo flows towards/ /from the Central European transit market.In other words, the overseas trade of the countries in the Central European hinterland is mainly oriented to the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe, forming valuable cargo flows on the Branches V B and V C of Corridor V.
In order to analyse the intensity and the structure and the dynamics of cargo flows on the Branch V B , Table 4 presents the turnover of the Port of Rijeka in the period from 1989 to 2007.
Table 4 shows clearly that the Port of Rijeka in the past six years realized total increase of traffic by 106% or 2.9 mill.tonnes.General cargo has increased by 172%, bulk cargo 81%, and traffic of wood 61%.Not taking into consideration the liquid cargo, in 2007 the Rijeka port realized a turnover of 5.62 million tonnes, and compared to 2006, the total turnover of dry cargo in 2007 increased by about 10%.In the structure of dry cargo the share of general cargo amounted to 38%, bulk cargo 56%, and wood 6%.
The data on turnover of the Port of Rijeka indicate that after some ten years the Rijeka port in 2007 marked a record turnover of 13.2 million tonnes, out of which 5 million tonnes refer to the traffic of general and bulk cargo and the traffic of wood which was realized as part of the business activities of the Port of Rijeka, d. d., whereas the remaining 5.8 million tonnes refer to the traffic of liquid cargo that was realized at the oil terminal in the Omišalj port basin.The pre-war volume of cargo on the Rijeka traffic route was such that in the 90s the turnover dramatically fell.Among other things, this was caused by the war risks, deterioration of the national ship operator "Croatia Line",   Regarding the structure of traffic, all types of cargo in 2007 marked increase in traffic, except for bulk cargo.Thus, in 2007, compared to the previous year the general cargo marked an increase of 37%, liquid cargo 29% and wood 38%.The increase in individual types of cargo was reflected also on their shares in the total traffic and as continuation to 2006 an equally good relation of single types of cargo in the total traffic was kept.Thus, for the sixth year in a row the Port of Rijeka has increased the total turnover and, according to some estimates in 2007 with the realized turnover of the Port of Rijeka 12% more cargo flows for the Rijeka traffic route i.e.Branch V B of the Pan-European Corridor V was ensured [12].
Similarly to the case of the Port of Rijeka and Branch V B , the Port of Ploèe and Branch V C also experience a significant fall in turnover during the war.According to data in Table 5 one may see that the total turnover of the Port of Ploèe in 1991 marked a significant fall in relation to the pre-war years.In the post--war period the turnover of the Port of Ploèe was increasing again and in 2007 the Port of Ploèe marked a total turnover of 4.2 mill.tonnes, which represents an increase of 32% in relation to the turnover in the previous year.The most part of this turnover (87%) was realized by the operator of the Port of Ploèe d. d., whereas the remaining turnover was realised by the operators of liquid cargo so that NTF d. o. o. handled 9% and LPT d. o. o. 4% of the total volume of all goods that passed through the Port of Ploèe [13].
Regarding the dynamics of the turnover at the Port of Ploèe, it may be already foreseen that 2008 will be marked as the year in which the Port of Ploèe, including the respective Corridor V C will realize maximum turnover in its history.Regarding the structure of the cargo flows through the Port of Ploèe, it should be emphasised that the traffic of bulk cargo in the period from 2001 to 2007 marked a constant growth that in this period amounted to 67%.Regarding the remaining cargo, general cargo also marked a slight increase, whereas the traffic of liquid cargo is mainly constant.
One can notice a record growth in traffic of general cargo which in 2004, compared to the previous year increased by as much as over 100%.The turnover of liquid cargo which has been falling since 1991 (with the exception of 2001) participated in 2007 with 15.2% of share in the total turnover and therefore has no further major significance for the traffic on the Adriatic.
Thus, the structure of cargo flows through the Port of Ploèe marked an increase of all the categories, general, bulk as well as liquid cargoes, with special emphasis on the turnover of containers which in 2007 exceeded the amount of 30,000 TEU which is by as much as 65% greater turnover compared to 2006.The most part of the turnover of the Port of Ploèe (79%) refers to bulk cargo, followed by the share of liquid cargo (14%) and general cargo (7%).The situation is similar also to the previous years, with the difference that in the period from 1988 to 2004 the share of general cargo was larger compared to the liquid cargo, whereas since 2005 a greater share of liquid cargo was marked in relation to general cargo.
The comparison of turnover of the ports of Rijeka and Ploèe indicates unquestionably greater competition of the Rijeka port compared to the Port of Ploèe, which is illustrated by the data according to which in 2007 the total turnover of the Port of Rijeka was more than three times greater compared to the Port of Ploèe.The reasons, naturally, are significantly greater capacity of the Port of Rijeka and the more developed line services, especially considering container cargo flows.Regarding the increasing significance and volume of container cargo flows it is necessary to take especially into consideration the realized container turnover at the ports of Rijeka and Ploèe (Table 6).
Regarding, namely, the Port of Rijeka, the best business results in the period from 2002 to 2007 were realized precisely by container terminal where, after technological modernisation at the end of 2002, the turnover increased almost ten times.Thus, the leading position regarding the turnover growth rate at the Port of Rijeka is still held by the container turnover.Regarding the flow dynamics and the intensity in the increase of container flows it should be noted that the  The fact that container turnover at the Port of Rijeka has been setting new records is confirmed also by the datum according to which in 2007 a turnover of 145,040 TEU was marked, which is an increase of as much as 54% compared to the previous year.The increase of the number of TEU units means also the development of the port front, so that the Rijeka port is already accepting ships of capacities of as much as 4000 TEU, and the regular line transport is operated by more than a dozen big ship operators.Analogue, regarding the high share of transit traffic in the Port of Rijeka turnover structure, the same trend of the intensity of container cargo flows can be assumed also on the Branch V B of Corridor V which provides the connection of the Rijeka port and the Central European transit hinterland.
In container transport the Port of Ploèe is connected to the Rijeka port since both ports accommodate "feeder" service towards the Mediterranean ports, mainly for the ports of Gioia Tauro and Malta.This is, among other things, the reason for a significant growth in container cargo flows in the port of Ploèe which in 2007 increased by as much as 65% compared to the previous year.
The increase in port turnover is the basis for entering a new investment cycle which will see modernization of the existing port capacities and construction of new modern terminals.Therefore, it should be emphasised that in both ports adequate terminals are being built for container handling, which will significantly affect attracting of the container cargo flows on Branches V B and V C of Pan-European Corridor V.

Central European transit hinterlandstrategic market segment of Branches V B and V C of Pan-European Corridor V
With the aim of defining the strategic market segment of Branches V B and V C of Pan-European Corridor V, this part pays special attention to the analysis of the dominant transit traffic in the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe.Speaking of the structure of cargo flows regarding orientation, compared to national traffic and land-land traffic (which does not include port cargo handling), the transit traffic of the Rijeka port (with a share of about 70%) in 2007 and the port of Ploèe (with a share of 84% in 2007) is the most significant segment of their total turnover [8,9].In other words, this refers to the majority of port traffic which travels along the respective routes (Branches V B and V C ) to the transit hinterland.
The statistics department of the Port of Rijeka registers the structure of transit traffic per countries traditionally in such a way that the transit partners of the Rijeka port especially emphasised are Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Italy, whereas traffic realized with other countries is managed within a special group (various countries).However, it should be noted that more recently, also new transit markets have appeared, and these are the markets of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro which means return of lost cargoes in the past.This is also confirmed by the structure of transit traffic to- wards the main transit partners of the Port of Rijeka which is presented in Figure 1.
The structure of transit traffic of the Port of Rijeka in 2007 indicates that the biggest share of transit traffic (37%) was realized with Italy.Hungary, as a traditional partner of the Rijeka port in its closer hinterland, accounts for 26, the Czech Republic and Slovakia together 10%, Austria 5%, and other countries 22%.The mentioned Central European countries represent at the same time the strategic traffic market of the Rijeka port, owing to which valuable transit cargo flows on Branch V B of Pan-European Corridor V were designed.Based on the analysed data about the quantity and structure of the transit traffic, it may be concluded that the Central European hinterland (Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) represent an important strategic segment of the transit market of the Port of Rijeka and Branch V B of Corridor V.However, the data indicate the threat of loss of this traditional transit market of the Port of Rijeka, regarding the growing share of the North European traffic routes and other North Adriatic routes (from the Port of Koper, and Trieste) in the overseas trade of these countries.
Considering the fact that Hungary naturally gravitates to the Rijeka traffic route and the Port of Rijeka, and that Austria, although near the other two North Adriatic ports (Koper and Trieste), has always marked significant transit traffic with the Port of Rijeka, the question is what are the reasons for the tendency of the turnover decline of the Rijeka port towards the mentioned countries.The transit traffic of Austria and Hungary via North European ports (Hamburg, Bremen, Polish ports -Gdansk, Gdynia, Szecin) has marked a slight increase, and this may be one of the possible reasons.Similarly, the orientation of the overseas trade of these countries to competitive North Adriatic ports of Koper and Trieste need also be taken into consideration.Regardless of the reasons, these flows, i.e. fall in the transit traffic to these countries should be taken seriously and solutions should be found which would return the cargo of the mentioned countries to Branch V B of Corridor V.
The Port of Ploèe through Branch Vc of Corridor V is fully in the function of serving the North European countries in the hinterland.This refers primarily to the serving of the economy of the neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, and to a lesser extent also the economic partners from Serbia and Montenegro, Hungary and other Central European countries.The rest of the cargo (ca.12%) refers to distribution between the Port of Ploèe and the industrial ports, and to domestic cargo intended to its hinterland (Graph 1).
The cargo flows that take the mentioned Branch of Corridor V towards Bosnia and Herzegovina refer especially to the import of coal and iron ore for the iron-works in Zenica and the coke plant in Lukavec [4].Besides, the Port of Ploèe is an interesting partner to other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which represent the joint transit market of the ports of Ploèe and Rijeka.The presence of the competition of other North Adriatic ports (Koper and Trieste) needs to be emphasised here, and in a wider sense also the North European ports, and the Port of Bar which, regarding the hinterland it serves (region of Eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Serbia and Montenegro), represents direct competitor especially to the Port of Ploèe.In the context of potential effects of other corridors it should be noted that the intensity of cargo flows on Branch Vc could be greatly affected also by the realization of the Adriatic-Ionian motorway that should connect the Port of Ploèe with the South-east of Europe [2].

POTENTIAL TRAFFIC DEMAND AND FORECAST OF CARGO FLOWS ON BRANCHES V B AND V C OF PAN-EUROPEAN CORRIDOR
The estimate of the traffic demand and cargo flows on the traffic route depends on numerous factors and subjects that participate in the production of the traffic service on the traffic route.However, in accordance with the limited scope of this research, the current cargo flows that circulate through the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe, are the most reliable starting point to estimate the traffic on Branches V B and V C of Pan-European Corridor V.
Apart from the conclusions on the estimate of the traffic demand and the estimate of intensity, structure and dynamics of cargo flows on Branches V B and V C of Corridor V, which are the result of this research, various forecasts of the development plans and studies of the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe have also been analyzed.Based on the analysis of the mentioned existing forecasts it may be concluded that many forecasts of the expected traffic have already been overcome.
For instance, if data on the realized total traffic of dry cargo of the Rijeka port in 2005 of 4.85 mill.tonnes are compared to the forecast of traffic of the Rotterdam Maritime Group, which according to high scenario amounts to 3.79 mill.tonnes, one finds that the forecast traffic of the Port of Rijeka was already exceeded at that time [2].According to the forecast of the Institute of Transport and Communications in 2005, the forecast traffic of the Rijeka port is between 4.5 and 5.5 million tonnes, and in 2010 between 6.0 and 8.0 million tonnes [20].The mentioned forecast, compared to the previous one, was nearer the realized traffic in 2005, and, conditionally, the traffic forecast of about 6.0 to 8.0 mill.tonnes in 2010 can be considered as the more realistic one, especially since in 2007 the Rijeka port realized a turnover of 5.62 mill.tonnes.
For the data on the forecast traffic volumes in the Port of Ploèe (Table 7) one may say that in compliance with the forecast growth of traffic at the Port of Ploèe by the year 2010 by as much as 73% (compared to traffic in 2006), a similar growing tendency is expected in cargo flows on the respective Branch Vc of Corridor V, which takes 84% of the traffic of the Port of Ploèe.The mentioned traffic forecast of the Port of Ploèe is justified by new investments regarding the construction of the multipurpose terminal (container terminal), and a new terminal for dry and bulk cargo, as well as the construction of Branch Vc thus enabling high--quality communication with the existing catchment zone and use of preconditions for the expansion of the market of port services towards Croatia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.The location of the Port of Ploèe provides good maritime connection both to the cities at the Adriatic coast of Croatia and Italy and the ports worldwide.Special quality has been achieved by establishing a weekly "feeder" line which connects the Port of Ploèe with Malta and Gioa Tauro.Apart from the Port of Ploèe this "feeder" line connects also the ports of Rijeka, Koper and Bar.
Regarding the constantly increasing value of the container flows and the world tendencies to containerize almost all cargo, the relevant indicators of potential intensity of container flows through the Port of Rijeka and the Port of Ploèe along the respective surface routes towards the hinterland of these ports are specially analyzed.
The potential volume of the container traffic of the Central European countries and its orientation to North Adriatic and North European ports, obtained in cooperation with the Rijeka agents, has been presented in Table 8.This refers to the relevant forecast indicator of cargo flows of container cargo on the North Adriatic and South Adriatic traffic routes, especially on Branches V B and Vc of Pan-European Corridor V since this is a valuable transit market which traditionally gravitates to the usage of analyzed corridors and the respective ports as their reference points.Since this is a transit market that exists in a concrete environment, the presence of competitive traffic routes and ports is only logical.In other words, in case of Branch V C it is the competitive alternative of the North Adriatic routes (from/to the ports of Koper and Trieste) and the North European routes (from/to the ports of Rotterdam, Hamburg,...), whereas in case of Branch V B it refers to the alternative North Adriatic and South Adriatic routes (from/to the ports of Bar, Thessaloniki,...).
According to these data the main part of the container traffic of the countries of Northern Germany,  Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and even Hungary (about 70-80%) will be sent to the North European ports, whereas the North Adriatic ports will have the advantage only for Slovenia (ca.98% -the port of Koper), Serbia (ca.60% -the Port of Rijeka) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (ca.75% -the ports of Koper and Rijeka), with the note on the competition from the ports of Bar and Ploèe when the market of Serbia and B&H is considered.It should be noted that the forecast plans a very small share of North Adriatic ports on the Hungarian market (30%) which naturally gravitates precisely to these ports.By comparing the forecast volume of container traffic it may be expected that the position of the North Adriatic ports in relation to the North European ports will be marginalized even more.However, a new phenomenon referring to the formation of "hub" ports leads to the phenomenon that the Mediterranean port system has an increasing share in the traffic parallel to the North European ports.
The demand forecast of the Mediterranean container ports presented in Table 9, is based on the existence of the "hub" ports on the Mediterranean, which will greatly affect even larger volumes of container traffic in this region, thus also affecting the greater demand for port services of the container ports on the Mediterranean, among which the North Adriatic and the South Adriatic ports and the respective corridors have special significance.
According to this forecast, in the period from 2004 to 2015 an increase is expected in the container traffic in the West Mediterranean by 54%, in Central Mediterranean by 61% and Eastern Mediterranean by 67%.The forecast about the significant increase in the demand for port services of the container ports in the Central Mediterranean implies also the forecast of greater demand for port services of the North Adriatic ports, and within these, of the Port of Rijeka and Ploèe.At the moment, the Port of Rijeka marks the biggest growing trend of container turnover on the Mediterranean.The container terminal Brajdica has been brought to the verge of maximal capacity utilisation, and over the recent several years by levelling, another 12,000 square metres of space have been obtained, thus increasing the capacity of Brajdice to 170,000 TEUs yearly.The plan is for the traffic to reach in the period of three years this maximal level of Brajdice, and to solve the problem of insufficient space by organizing a new container terminal at the Zagreb quay, the construction of which has already started.
The world trend in port transport is that almost all the goods will be placed into containers, among other things wood as well, even part of the bulk cargo.Judging by the plans of the leading shipping companies that have long-term interest in the Port of Rijeka, in 2016 this port (after the construction of the Prague and Zagreb quays, and expansion of Brajdice) should feature a turnover of 700,000 TEU/annually, which is approximately an equivalent of 7 million tonnes of cargo [14].These forecasts will be reflected absolutely also on the major volume of the cargo flows on Branch V B of Pan-European Corridor V.
Analysing the position of the Port of Ploèe and Branch V C , an interesting forecast is regarding the orientation of the container transport from the immediate catchment area of the Port of Ploèe, i.e. the neighbouring countries, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.It says that there is "only" 25% of "certain" container transport of the neighbouring countries, and this refers exclusively to the immediate hinterland of the Port of Ploèe and Branch V C of Pan-European Corridor V i.e. the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
However, assuming that the operation will be improved and there will be adaptation to new conditions both within the Port of Ploèe and in relation to the macro-environment (development of a free port zone, development of trade and industrial function of the port and development of the port front), the more optimistic forecasts of the cargo flows through the Port of Ploèe, including Branch V C of Corridor V are realistic.This is also confirmed by the data according to which the first nine months of 2007 saw a realized turnover of 3.2 million tonnes of cargo at the Port of Ploèe, whereas by the end of the year more than 4 million tonnes of cargo are expected.A significant increase in the container turnover at the Port of Ploèe is of similar importance, and compared to 2006 it increased in 2007 by as much as 58%.After having completed the 50 million euro worth container terminal, whose construction is expected in two years at the latest, the container traffic at the Port of Ploèe is planned to be more than 100 thousand TEU a year [13].
Regardless of the mentioned current forecasts regarding the growth of total and container traffic of the ports of Rijeka and Ploèe, the past dynamics and the traffic growth of these two Croatian ports certainly imply the forecast of further growth of the total and container traffic on Branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor, especially considering the close as well as wider transit hinterland.

CONCLUSION
The carried out analysis of the foreign trade of the Republic of Croatia, the orientation of the foreign trade and overseas trade of the European countries and the structure of the transit traffic of the ports of Rijeka and Ploèe confirm that Branches V B and V C of Pan-European Corridor V are capital infrastructure routes of Croatia that directly participate in serving the Central European regions (Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, …) as the strategic transit market.
Although this Central European region is traditionally oriented to the mentioned North Adriatic and South Adriatic traffic route, the analysis of the orientation of the transit traffic of the Central European countries indicates a danger of losing this market regarding the presence of competition from the North European traffic routes (the ports of Hamburg, Rotterdam, …), competition from other North Adriatic routes (ports of Koper and Trieste), and the competition of the Montenegro port of Bar (especially regarding the South Adriatic route towards the Port of Ploèe).
Although in accordance with the limited scope of research, the forecast given in this paper regarding the cargo flows on vital Croatian corridors analysed for intensity, structure and dynamics of traffic recorded in the ports as important traffic junctions in which the traffic can be "measured", it should be emphasised that a precise estimate of the traffic demand on the analysed corridors requires "depth analysis".For instance, valorisation of each traffic route, i.e. its competitiveness and attraction on the traffic market depends on a number of factors (qualitative, economic, …) that need to be taken into consideration as relevant indicators of cargo flows formation.Similarly, the possible effects of other corridors should not be neglected, especially those that intersect with Branches V B and V C (Corridor X -Branch X A ; Corridor VII, potential Adriatic-Ionian Corridor), which may also significantly affect the formation of cargo flows on the analysed corridors.
In spite of geo-traffic predispositions, and positive forecasts on the traffic growth and dynamics of cargo flows on the analysed corridors, especially regarding container traffic, the continuation of tendency of growth of the share of North European traffic routes in transit traffic of the Central European countries, may lead to a significant loss of valuable transit cargo flows on Branches V B and V C of Pan-European Corridor V.This would substantially reduce the competitiveness of the North Adriatic and South Adriatic route from the existing potentials.
In order to prevent negative tendencies, adequate strategy should be defined, that will make these routes competitive on the valuable Central European transit market and in the wider European environment by integrated and coordinated approach to all the subjects in the logistic chain of the analysed traffic routes.It is only with such approach that Branches V B and V C of Pan-European Corridor V will be able to play their important role in the integration of Croatia in the European traffic and economic system.

Table 2
Comparative Analysis of Cargo Flows on Branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor V it is obvious that the biggest trade partners of the Croatian export destinations in 2006 were: Italy, B&H, Germany, Slovenia 206 Promet -Traffic&Transportation, Vol.21, 2009, No. 3, 205-216 T. Poletan Jugoviae, N. Joliae, Z. Kavran:

Table 2 -The most important trade partners of the Republic of Croatia in 2006
Comparative Analysis of Cargo Flows on Branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor V Promet -Traffic&Transportation, Vol.21, 2009, No. 3, 205-216 209 T. Poletan Jugoviae, N. Joliae, Z. Kavran:

Table 3 -Goods turnover at ports of special economic significance for RH (in 000 tonnes)
According to the data of the Ministry of the Sea, Transport and Infrastructure, Republic of Croatia, 2008 Source:

Table 4 -Turnover of the Port of Rijeka per cargo structure from 1996 to 2007 (in mill. tonnes)
, condition of the Croatian economy, poor government support, absence of modern technology at the port, etc. whereas at the same time the neighbouring Slovenia and Italy invested in the development of the ports of Koper and Trieste.

Table 5 -Turnover of the Port of Ploèe per cargo structure from 1988 to 2007 (in 000 tonnes)
Source: According to www.port-authority-ploce.hr(10.04.2008.)

Table 6 -Container turnover at the ports of Ploèe and Rijeka (in TEU)
Figure 1 -Structure of the transit traffic of the Ports of Rijeka and Ploèe in 2007 Source: Port of Rijeka, d. d., 2008; (10.04.2008.)

Table 7 -Traffic forecast of the Port of Ploèe 2005 - 2010 (in 000 tonnes)
* data on the realized traffic of the Port of Ploèe; ** forecast traffic of the Port of Ploèe Source: The Port of Ploèe d. d., Odjel za istraãivanje trãišta (Department for Market Research) Comparative Analysis of Cargo Flows on Branches V B and V C of the Pan-European Corridor V

Table 8 -Forecast of the orientation of container traffic of the European countries to North-Adriatic and North European ports
Source: developed by authors according to the data of Rijeka agents