Broadband Traffic Forecasting in the Transport Network

  • Valentina Radojičić
  • Goran Marković
  • Milan Janković
  • Borko Drašković
Keywords: broadband technologies, competitive forecasting method, market, network, traffic,


This paper proposes a modification of traffic forecast model generated by residential and small business (SOHO, Small Office Home Office) users. The model includes forecasted values of different relevant factors and competition on broadband market. It allows forecasting the number of users for various broadband technologies and interaction impact of long-standing technologies as well as the impact of the new technology entrant on the market. All the necessary parameters are evaluated for the Serbian broadband market. The long-term forecasted results of broadband traffic are given. The analyses and evaluations performed are important inputs for the transport network resources planning.


Stordahl, K.: Long-term telecommunication forecasting, Ph.D. thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway, 2006

Dischinger, M.: Making Broadband Access Networks Transparent to Researchers, Developers, and Users, Ph.D. thesis, University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany, June 2010

OECD Broadband Portal, 2009. Available at:

Windsor Oaks Group, Market Outlook Report: Global Fixed Broadband Subscriber Forecast, 2009. Available at:

Rappoport, P., Alleman, J., Taylor, L.: Forecasting the Spatial Deployment of FiOS, Telektronikk, Vol.104, No. 3/4, 2008, pp. 29–36

Hoven, G.: Open fiber-to-the-home networks in Europe, IEEE LEOS Newsletter, 2008, pp. 13-14

Larsen, C.P.: Access network technologies: deployments in Sweden, 33rd European Conference on Optical Communication, Berlin, Germany, No. 1, pp. 39-42, September 2007

Cambini, C., Jiang, Y.: Broadband Investment and Regulation: A Literature Review, Telecommunications Policy, Vol. 33, No. 10-11, 2009, pp. 559-574

Stordahl, K., Murphy, E.: Forecasting Long-Term Demand for Services in the Residential Market, IEEE Communications Magazine, Vol. 33, No. 2, 1995, pp. 44 - 49

Radojicic, V.: Forecasting in telecommunications, The Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, Serbia (originally in Serbian), 2003

Radas, S.: Diffusion Models in Marketing: How to Incorporate the Effect of External Influence, Privredna kretanja i ekonomska politika, Vol. 15, No. 105, 2005, pp. 30-51

Lucky, R.W.: New Communications Services – What Does Society Want?, Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 85, No. 10, 1997, pp. 1536-1543

Mahajan, V., Muller, E., Bass, M.F.: New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research, Journal of Marketing, Vol. 54, No. 1, 1990, pp. 1–26

Mahajan, V., Muller E., Wind Y.: New Product Diffusion Models: From Theory to Practice, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, pp. 3-24, 2000

Krishnan, T.V., Bass, F.M., Kumar, V.: Impact of a Late Entrant on the Diffusion of a New Product/Service, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 37, No. 2, 2000, pp. 269–278

Kumar, A., Baisya, R.K., Shankar, R., Momaya, K.: Diffusion of mobile communications: Application of Bass diffusion model to BRIC countries, Journal of Scientific & Industrial Research, Vol. 66, No. 4, 2007, pp. 312-316

Geroski, P.A.: Models of technology diffusion, Research Policy, Vol. 29, No. 4/5, 2000, pp. 603-625

Vanston, L.K., Hodges, R.L.: Technology forecasting for telecommunications, Telektronnikk, Vol. 100, No. 4, 2004, pp. 32-42

Bass, F.M.: New Product growth model for consumer durables, Management Science, Vol. 15, No. 15, 1969, pp. 215-227

Sterman, J.D.: Business Dynamics: System Thinking and Modelling for a Complex World, Irwin/McGraw Hill, Boston, 2000

Bolton, R.N., Lemon, K.N.: A Dynamic Model of Customers’ Usage of Services: Usage as an Antecedent and Consequence of Satisfaction, Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 36, No. 2, 1999, pp. 171–186

Lyons, M.H., Burton, F., Egan, B., Lynch, T., Skelton, S.: Dynamic Modeling of Present and Future Service Demand, Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 85, No. 10, 1997, pp. 1544-1555

Norton, J., Bass, F.M.: A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution of Successive Generations of High Technology Products, Management Science, Vol. 33, No. 9, 1987, pp. 1069-1086

Stordahl, K.: Traffic Forecasting Models for the Incumbent Based on New Drivers in the Market, Telektronikk, Vol. 104, No. ¾, 2003, pp. 122–127

Stordahl, K., Elnegaard, N.K.: Broadband in the residual market: First mover’s advantage. Proceedings World Telecommunication Congress, Budapest, Hungary, April – May, 2006

Republic Agency for Electronic Communications: An Overview of Telecom Market in the Republic of Serbia in 2010, 2010, available at:

Armstrong, J.S.: Principles of Forecasting. A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 2001

Hjelkrem, C.: Market scenarios and conjoint analysis. Telektronikk, Vol. 104, No. ¾, 2008, pp. 136–143

Gruber, H.: Competition and innovation. The diffusion of mobile telecommunications in Central and Eastern Europe, Information Economics and Policy, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2001, pp. 19-34

Kohli, C.: Signaling New Product Introductions: A Framework Explaining the Timing of Preannouncement, Journal of Business Research, Vol. 46, No. 1, 1999, pp. 45-56

How to Cite
Radojičić V, Marković G, Janković M, Drašković B. Broadband Traffic Forecasting in the Transport Network. PROMET [Internet]. 1 [cited 2020Jan.20];24(4):275-84. Available from:
Older issues