Analysis of the Impacts of Passenger Demand on the Profitability of Different Types of Urban Rail Transit

  • Qi Zhou Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data, Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University
  • Baohua Mao Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data, Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University
  • Sairong Peng Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data, Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University
  • Junsheng Huang Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data, Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University
  • Peining Tian Key Laboratory of Transport Industry of Big Data, Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport, Beijing Jiaotong University
Keywords: urban rail transit, profitability, light rail transit, passenger demand, spatial characteristic

Abstract

With the rapid development of urban rail transit (URT) in China, the contradiction between high cost and low passenger demand becomes prominent. To fully analyse the impacts of passenger demand on the profitability of URT can be difficult, due to the multifaceted impact of passenger demand with multidimensional characteristics. To this end, we propose a strategy that helps to analyse the profitability of URT with different types, in consideration of the spatial and temporal characteristics of demand. Based on the data of the SD district in China, the profitability of metro, light rail transit (LRT), monorail, and tram was evaluated. Results show the profitability under different demand levels. Tram might be the best choice at low demand levels. At medium demand levels, LRT and monorail are competitive. At high demand levels, LRT with medium to high capacity and low cost is also a good alternative while metro with higher capacity. Utilizing the URT with high capacity under insufficient demand can aggravate the burden of the depreciation, and make it hard to achieve profit. The spatial characteristics of the demand described in this paper reflect the problem of insufficient demand in marginal areas due to the diversified construction of URT.

References

Shen Q, Chen P, Pan H. Factors affecting car ownership and mode choice in rail transit-supported suburbs of a large Chinese city. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2016;94: 31-44. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2016.08.027.

Kelly FJ, Zhu T. Transport solutions for cleaner air. Science. 2016;352(6288): 934-936. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf3420.

Wen S, Shi J, Zhang W. Impact of urban rail transit network on residential and commercial land values in China: A Complex Network Perspective. Complexity. 2021;2021: 11-15. doi: 10.1155/2021/8849066.

Guerra E, Cervero R. Cost of a ride: The effects of densities on fixed-guideway transit ridership and capital costs. Journal of the American Planning Association. 2011;77(3): 267-290. doi: 10.1080/01944363.2011.589767.

Sohu. The project costs per km of heavy rail transit in Beijing are more than one billion CNY. http://news.sohu.com/20150630/n415908777.shtml [Accessed 18th May 2020].

Ransom MR. The effect of light rail transit service on nearby property values. Journal of Transport and Land Use. 2018;11(1): 387-404. doi: 10.5198/jtlu.2018.1096.

Zhao J, et al. Cost of an urban rail ride: A nation-level analysis of ridership, capital costs and cost-effectiveness performance of urban rail transit projects in China. Journal of Transport and Land Use. 2018;11(1): 1173-1191. doi: 10.5198/jtlu.2018.1292.

China Association of Metros. Annual Report. 2019. https://www.camet.org.cn/tjxx/5133 [Accessed 24th May 2022].

Bian Y, Yang Y, Zhou X. Study on construction condition index of urban rail transit project. [城市轨道交通项目建设条件指标研究]. Urban Rapid Rail Transit [都市快轨交通]. 2015;28(6): 1–5. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-6073.2015.06.001.

Tian Z. On mode with parameters of operational subsidy of urban rail transit. [ 城市轨道交通运营补贴模式及参数研究]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology [交通运输系统工程与信息]. 2010;10(01): 33-37. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6744.2010.01.006.

Hensher DA, Ho C, Mulley C. Identifying preferences for public transport investments under a constrained budget. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2015;72: 27-46. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2014.12.002.

Bokor Z. Cost calculation model for logistics service providers. Promet-Traffic&Transportation. 2012;24(6): 515-524. doi: 10.7307/ptt.v24i6.1198.

Hall M, Weiss L. Firm size and profitability. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1967; 319-331. doi: 10.2307/1926642.

Meyer JR, John F, Wohl M. The Urban Transportation Problem. London: Oxford University Press; 1965.

Brand C, Preston J. The Software Tool: Specification and Case Study Validation. TSU Working Paper (Ref. 948), Transport Studies Unit, University of Oxford, 2003.

Tirachini A, Hensher D A, Jara-Díaz S R. Restating modal investment priority with an improved model for public transport analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review. 2010;46(6): 1148-1168. doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2010.01.008.

Casello JM, Lewis GMD, Yeung K, et al. A transit technology selection model. Journal of Public Transportation. 2014;17(4): 5. doi: 10.5038/2375-0901.17.4.4.

Manoratna DA, Kawata K, Yoshida Y. Environmental impact and travel time savings of a new monorail system in colombo’s commuting traffic. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2017;51: 122-128. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2016.12.003.

Vu T, Preston J. Assessing the social costs of urban transport infrastructure options in low and middle income countries. Transportation Planning and Technology. 2020;43(4): 365-384. doi: 10.1080/03081060.2020.1747202.

Wang R. Autos, transit and bicycles: Comparing the costs in large Chinese cities. Transport policy. 2011;18(1): 139-146. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2010.07.003.

Keeler T E, Small K. The Full Costs of Urban Transport Part III: Automobile Costs and Final Intermodal Cost Comparisons. Monograph No. 21, Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, Berkeley, 1975.

Flyvbjerg B, Skamris Holm M K, Buhl S L. How (in) accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects?: The case of transportation. Journal of the American planning association. 2005;71(2): 131-146. doi: 10.1080/01944360508976688.

Kain JF. Essays in transportation economics and policy: A handbook in honor of John R. Meyer. In J. Gomez-Ibanez, W. B. Tye, & C. Winston (Eds.) The urban transportation problem: A reexamination and update, 21 April 1999.Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press; 1999.p. 359–401.

Pickrell DH. Urban rail transit projects: Forecast versus actual ridership and costs. Final report. Urban Mass Transportation Administration, United States. Report number: UMTA-MA-08-9021-89-1, 1990.

Ministry of construction of the people's Republic of China. CJJ/T 114-2007. Classification standard of urban public transport. Beijing. China Architecture and Building Press; 2007.

Anas A, Moses L N. Mode choice, transport structure and urban land use. Journal of Urban Economics. 1979;6(2): 228-246. doi: 10.1016/0094-1190(79)90007-X.

Monson K. String block vs superblock patterns of dispersal in China. Architectural Design. 2008;78(1): 46-53. doi: 10.1002/ad.608.

Wang M, Mao B, Yang Y, et al. Determining the Level of Service Scale of Public Transport System considering the Distribution of Service Quality. Journal of Advanced Transportation. 2022; 2022. doi: 10.1155/2022/5120401.

Shang B, Zhang X. Passenger-flow spatial distribution model of urban rail transit. [城市轨道交通客流空间分布模型]. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University [西南交大学报]. 2013;48(03): 539-545. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2013.03.023.

Sharma R, Newman P. Urban rail and sustainable development key lessons from Hong Kong, New York, London and India for emerging cities. Transportation research procedia. 2017;26: 92-105. doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2017.07.011.

Kot S. Cost structure in relation to the size of road transport enterprises. Promet-Traffic & Transportation. 2015;27(5): 387-394. doi: 10.7307/ptt.v27i5.1687.

Nurcahyo R, Farizal F, Arifianto BMI, et al. Mass Rapid Transit Operation and Maintenance Cost Calculation Model. Journal of Advanced Transportation. 2020;2020. doi: 10.1155/2020/7645142.

Zhu Y, Zhang X Q, Jin Y, Liao Y. Research on construction condition of intercity railway based on financial analysis. [基于财务分析的城际铁路建设条件研究]. Journal of Railway Engineering Society [铁道工程学报]. 2011;28(08): 116-120. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-2106.2011.08.022.

Ministry of housing and urban-rural development of the people's Republic of China. GB50157-2013. Code for design of metros. Beijing. China Architecture and Building Press, 2013.

Li YH, et.al. Research on the quantitative method of multi-level and multi-mode rail transit system selection in metropolitan areas. [都市区轨道交通多层次各制式量化选择方法研究]. Railway Standard Design [铁道标准设计]. 2020;64(06): 9-16. doi: 10.13238/j.issn.1004-2954.201907280002.

National Bureau of Statistics. Annual Average Wages of Employed Persons by Industry and Position in 2020. http://www.stats.gov.cn/xxgk/sjfb/zxfb2020/202105/t20210519_1817691.html [Accessed 12th May 2022].

The People's Republic of China. Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Further Strengthening the Management of Urban Rail Transit Planning and Construction. Beijing: the Office of the State Council; 2018.

Ministry of Construction of the People's Republic of China. JB1004-2008. Construction standards for urban rail transit engineering projects. Beijing: China Planning Press; 2008.

People's Republic of China.National Development and Reform Commission on Strengthening Urban Rail Transit Notice of planning and construction management. Beijing: National Development and Reform Commission; 2015.

Li WX, Yin S. Analysis on cost of urban rail transit. [城市轨道交通成本构成分析]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering & Information Technology [交通运输系统工程与信息]. 2012;12(02): 9-14. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-6744.2012.02.002.

Kuby M, Barranda A. Upchurch C. Factors influencing light-rail station boardings in the United States. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 2004;38(3): 223-247. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2003.10.006.

Published
2023-02-13
How to Cite
1.
Zhou Q, Mao B, Peng S, Huang J, Tian P. Analysis of the Impacts of Passenger Demand on the Profitability of Different Types of Urban Rail Transit . Promet [Internet]. 2023Feb.13 [cited 2024Apr.14];35(1):71-6. Available from: http://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/4185
Section
Articles