Impact of Weather Conditions on Travel Demand – The Most Common Research Methods and Applied Models

  • Dragana Petrović University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
  • Ivan Ivanović University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
  • Vladimir Đorić University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
  • Jadranka Jović University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering
Keywords: weather impact, travel behaviour, trip generation, modal split

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of the applied research methodologies and developed travel demand models that take weather impact into account. The paper deals with trip generation and modal split as elements of travel demand that best describe changes in the travel behaviour in different weather conditions. The authors herein emphasize the importance of research in local conditions in all climate zones, especially in areas where climate and modal split characteristics are different from those in common research areas. This review is designed as a brief guide on how the impact of weather can be explored in order to encourage conducting research even in the countries where there is no systematic traffic and travel data collection. The stated adaptation technique followed by the panel household travel surveys may be particularly appropriate for those countries. It is concluded that small budgets should not be considered an obstacle, because it is possible to draw reliable conclusions based even on small samples. Moreover, modern research methods enable a cheaper survey process together with the possibility of obtaining higher quality of results. The increasing popularity of research in this field should contribute to the creation of more resilient transport systems all over the world. A special contribution of this paper is the review of research studies carried out in central, western and southern Europe and not mentioned in any review paper before.

References

Böcker L, Dijst M, Prillwitz J. Impact of Everyday Weather on Individual Daily Travel Behaviours in Perspective: A Literature Review. Transp Rev. 2013;33(1): 71-91. Available from: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01441647.2012.747114

Clifton K, Chen R, Cutter A. Representing Weather in Travel Behaviour Models: A Case Study from Sydney, AUS. Australasian Transport Research Forum 2011 Proceedings, Adelaide, Australia; 2011. p. 1-14. Available from: http://www.atrf.info/papers/2011/2011_Clifton_Chen_Cutter.pdf

Koetse MJ, Rietveld P. The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ. 2009 May;14(3): 205-21. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S136192090800165X

Van Leeuwen E, Koetse M, Koomen E, Rietveld P. Spatial economic research on climate change and adaptation; Literature review for “Knowledge for Climate”. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. KfC report number KfC 002/09, 2009. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241866898_Spatial_economic_research_on_climate_change_and_adaptation_Literature_review_for_%27Knowledge_for_Climate%27_KFC_report_number_KFC_00209

Ivanović I, Jović J. Sensitivity of street network capacity under the rain impact: Case study of Belgrade. Transport. 2018;33(2): 470-7. Available from: https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/Transport/article/view/171/138

Haberl M, Neuhold R, Cik M, Fellendorf M. Modelling the demand of leisure traffic in the province of Salzburg. Proceedings of the European Transport Conference 2012, Glasgow, Scotland, UK; 2012. p. 1-17. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/306056098_Modelling_the_demand_of_leisure_traffic_in_the_province_of_Salzburg_-_Austria

Aaheim HA, Hauge KE. Impacts of climate change on travel habits: A national assessment based on individual choices. Blindern, Oslo: Center for International Climate and Environmental Research; 2005. Available from: https://pub.cicero.oslo.no/cicero-xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/191992/CICERO_Report_2005-07.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Zhang X, Chen M. Quantifying the Impact of Weather Events on Travel Time and Reliability. J Adv Transp. 2019;2019: 1-9. Available from: https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jat/2019/8203081/

Rudloff C, Leodolter M, Bauer D, Auer R, Brög W, Kehnscherper K. Influence of Weather on Transport Demand. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board. 2015;2482(1): 110-6. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/283786981_Influence_of_Weather_on_Transport_Demand

Guitink P, Holste S, Lebo J. Non-motorized transport: Confronting poverty through affordable mobility. Infrastructure Notes. Transport No. UT-4; 1994.

Giffinger R, Fertner C, Kramar H, Meijers E. City-ranking of European medium-sized cities. 51th IFHP World Congress “Future of Cities”, 23-26 Sep. 2007, Copenhagen; 2007.

Modal Split in ausgewählten deutschen Großstädten. Deutscher Bundestag, WD 5 - 3000 - 084/17, 2017.

EPOMM. TEMS - The EPOMM Modal Split Tool. Compare cities. Available from: http://www.epomm.eu/tems/compare_cities.phtml [cited 2020 Mar 27].

Bergström A, Magnusson R. Potential of transferring car trips to bicycle during winter. Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2003 Oct;37(8): 649-66. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0965856403000120

Van Berkum E, Weijermars W, Hagens A. The impact of weather on urban travel demand in the Netherlands. Proceedings of the EWGT2006 International Joint Conferences, Bari, Italia; 2006. p. 245-52. Available from: http://www.iasi.cnr.it/ewgt/EWGT_Atti.pdf

Winters M, Friesen MC, Koehoorn M, Teschke K. Utilitarian bicycling: A multilevel analysis of climate and personal influences. Am J Prev Med. 2007;32(1): 52-8. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17184961

Gebhart K, Noland RB. The impact of weather conditions on bikeshare trips in Washington, DC. Transportation. 2014;41(6): 1205-25. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271919684_The_impact_of_weather_conditions_on_bikeshare_trips_in_Washington_DC

Liu C, Susilo YO, Karlström A. The influence of weather characteristics variability on individual’s travel mode choice in different seasons and regions in Sweden. Transp Policy. 2015;41: 147-58. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0967070X15000037

Sabir M. Weather and Travel Behaviour. PhD thesis. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; 2011. Available from: http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/19500/dissertation.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Jović J. The influence of weather conditions on transport system and mobility. International Conference TES, Subotica, Serbia; 2012. p. 101-4.

Böcker L, Prillwitz J, Dijst M. Climate change impacts on mode choices and travelled distances: A comparison of present with 2050 weather conditions for the Randstad Holland. J Transp Geogr. 2013 Apr;28: 176-85. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0966692312002700

Böcker L, Priya Uteng T, Liu C, Dijst M. Weather and daily mobility in international perspective: A cross-comparison of Dutch, Norwegian and Swedish city regions. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ. 2019;77: 491-505. Available from: https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S1361920918306199?token=8BA2A71F8F243D1476D73D5832A0F06DED7789DA5448F40E1D5356AE1FC41D91A0009B553A84E152085205B49EE531F6

Grujičić D, Ivanović I, Jović J, Đorić V. Customer perception of service quality in public transport. Transport. 2014;29(3): 285-95. Available from: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3846/16484142.2014.951685

Liu C, Susilo YO, Karlström A. Weather variability and travel behaviour – What we know and what we do not know. Transp Rev. 2017;37(6): 715-41. Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01441647.2017.1293188

Hensher D, Rose J, Greene W. Applied Choice Analysis: A Primer. Second Ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2015.

Louviere J, Hensher DA, Swait J. Stated Choice Methods: Analysis and Applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2000.

Ortuzar J de D, Willumsen L. Modelling Transport. Fourth Ed. JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd UK; 2011.

Khademi E, Arentze T, Timmermans H. Designing stated adaptation experiments for changes to activity-travel repertoires: Approach in the context of pricing policies. European Transport Conference (ETC), Glasgow, United Kingdom; 2012. p. 1-20. Available from: https://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/4030/confid/18

Tudela A, Rebolledo G. Optimal Design of Stated Preference Experiments when Using Mixed Logit Models. European Transport Conference (ETC), Strasbourg, France; 2006. p. 1-11. Available from: https://abstracts.aetransport.org/paper/index/id/2555/confid/12

Parvaneh Z, Arentze T, Timmermans H. A Stated Adaptation Approach to Assess Changes in Individuals’ Activity-travel Behavior in Presence of Personalized Travel Information. Transp Res Procedia. 2014;2014(3): 21-30. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352146514002506

Cools M, Moons E, Creemers L, Wets G. Changes in travel behavior in response to weather conditions: Whether type of weather and trip purpose matter? Transportation Research Record, Transportation Research Board; 2010. p. 1-15. Available from: https://orbi.ulg.ac.be/bitstream/2268/132905/1/TRR 10-0952 CMCW Authorpostscript.pdf

Faivre D’Arcier B, Andan O, Raux C. Stated adaptation surveys and choice process: Some methodological issues. Transportation. 1998;25(2): 169-85. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5088431_Stated_adaptation_surveys_and_choice_process_Some_methodological_issues

Böcker L, Dijst M, Faber J, Helbich M. En-route weather and place valuations for different transport mode users. J Transp Geogr. 2015;47: 128-38. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0966692315000939

Petrović D. Weather impact on trip generation and modal split. PhD thesis. University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering; 2017. Serbian. Available from: http://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/bitstream/handle/123456789/9921/Disertacija.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Termida NA, Susilo YO, Franklin JP, Liu C. Understanding seasonal variation in individual’s activity participation and trip generation by using four consecutive two-week travel diary. Travel Behav Soc. 2018;12(August 2017): 52-63. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.tbs.2017.12.006

Anta J, Pérez-López JB, Martínez-Pardo A, Novales M, Orro A. Influence of the weather on mode choice in corridors with time-varying congestion: A mixed data study. Transportation. 2016;43(2): 337-55. Available from: http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84921889334&partnerID=tZOtx3y1

Creemers L, Wets G, Cools M. Meteorological variation in daily travel behaviour: Evidence from revealed preference data from the Netherlands. Theor Appl Climatol. 2015;120(1-2): 183-94. Available from: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-014-1169-0

Liu C, Susilo Y, Karlstrom A. Examining the impact of weather variability on non-commuters’ daily activity–travel patterns in different regions of Sweden. J Transp Geogr. 2014 Jul;39: 36-48. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0966692314001331

Liu C, Susilo YO, Karlström A. Investigating the impacts of weather variability on individual’s daily activity-travel patterns: A comparison between commuters and non-commuters in Sweden. Transp Res Part A. 2015;82: 47-64. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.tra.2015.09.005

Sabir M, Ommeren J van, Koetse MJ, Rietveld P. Impact of weather on daily travel demand. Working paper, CROW Fietsberaad, 2010. Available from: http://www.fietsberaad.nl/library/repository/bestanden/Sabir et al (2010a).Pdf

Sabir M, Koetse MJ, Rietveld P. The Impact of Weather Conditions on Mode Choice: Empirical Evidence for the Netherlands. 17th Annual conference EAERE. Amsterdam, Holland; 2009. p. 1-24. Available from: http://www.webmeets.com/files/papers/EAERE/2009/1021/Sabir.pdf

Saneinejad S, Roorda MJ, Kennedy C. Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ. 2012 Mar;17(2): 129-37. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1361920911001143

Saneinejad S. Modelling the Impact of Weather Conditions on Active Transportation Travel Behaviour. Master Thesis. University of Toronto; 2010. Available from: https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/25793/6/Saneinejad_Sheyda_201011_MASc_thesis.pdf

Vu AT, Nguyen TTH. Analysis of Mode Choice Behavior under Adverse Weather Conditions Using RA and SA Surveyst – A Case Study from Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Geotechnics, Civil Engineering Works and Structures, CIGOS 2019, Innovation for Sustainable Infrastructure; 2019. p. 959-64.

Khattak AJ, De Palma A. The impact of adverse weather conditions on the propensity to change travel decisions: A survey of Brussels commuters. Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 1997;31(3): 181-203. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0965856496000250

Palma ADE, Rochat D. Understanding individual travel decisions: Results from a commuters survey in Geneva. Transportation. 1999;26(3): 263-81. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226999460_Understanding_individual_travel_decisions_Results_from_a_commuters_survey_in_Geneva

Cools M, Creemers L. The dual role of weather forecasts on changes in activity-travel behavior. J Transp Geogr. 2013 Apr;28: 167-75. Available from: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0966692312002682

Nikolić M. Impact of weather conditions on travel demand in Belgrade. Master Thesis. University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering; 2011. Serbian.

Petrović D, Ivanović I, Djorić V. Does Weather Impact on Commuters’ Travel Demand – Empirical Case Study of Belgrade. European Transport Conference (ETC), Frankfurt, Germany; 2015. p. 1-11. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292143625_DOES_WEATHER_IMPACT_ON_COMMUTERS’_TRAVEL_DEMAND_-_EMPIRICAL_CASE_STUDY_OF_BELGRADE

Van Stralen W, Calvert SC, Molin EJE. The influence of adverse weather conditions on the probability of congestion on Dutch motorways. Eur J Transp Infrastruct Res. 2015;15(4): 482-500. Available from: http://www.trb.org/AnnualMeeting2014/AnnualMeeting2014.aspx

Richardson AJ, Ampt ES, Meyburg AH. Survey Methods for Transport Planning. First ed. Melbourne, Australia: Eucalyptus Press; 1995. Available from: http://www.no2hcf.co.uk/docs/Traffic_survey_form.pdf

Paskota M. Sample design and survey error. Seventh International Conference on Travel Survey Methods, Costa Rica; 2004. p. 1-27. Available from: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5917/83fe665d032492b261a2480e40c9c3968243.pdf?_ga=2.50703721.1948720205.1577437569-2029327699.1573495925

Paskota M. [Methodology for quantitative research]. University of Belgrade, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering; 2007. Serbian.

Pillat J. Methoden zur Analyse und Prognose des Verkehrsaufkommens unter Berücksichtigung des Wetters auf Autobahnen. Universitat Stuttgart; 2014. Available from: https://d-nb.info/1064308902/34

Böcker L. Climate, Weather and Daily Mobility - Transport Mode Choices and Travel Experiences in the Randstad Holland. PhD thesis. Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University; 2014. Available from: http://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/315942

Liu C, Susilo YO, Karlström A. Measuring the impacts of weather variability on home-based trip chaining behaviour: A focus on spatial heterogeneity. Transportation. 2015;43(5): 843-67. Available from: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-015-9623-0

Sabir M, van Ommeren J, Koetse M, Rietveld P. Welfare Effects of Adverse Weather through Speed Changes in Car Commuting Trips. Tinbergen Inst Discuss Pap. 2008;TI 2008-08: 1-23. Available from: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/10029.pdf

Vu AT, Nguyen TTH. Travel behavior change patterns under adverse weather conditionst – A case study from Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Geotechnics, Civil Engineering Works and Structures, CIGOS 2019, Innovation for Sustainable Infrastructure; 2019. p. 921-6.

Heinen E, Maat K, Wee B Van. Day-to-Day Choice to Commute or Not by Bicycle. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board. 2011;2230(1): 9-18.

Chang JS, Jung D, Kim J, Kang T. Comparative analysis of trip generation models: Results using home-based work trips in the Seoul metropolitan area. Transp Lett Int J Transp Res. 2014;6(2): 78-88. Available from: http://www.maneyonline.com/doi/abs/10.1179/1942787514Y.0000000011

Agervig Carstensen T, Ebert A-K. Chapter 2 Cycling Cultures in Northern Europe: From ‘Golden Age’ to ‘Renaissance’. In: Cycling and Sustainability. 2015. p. 23-58.

Li J, Li X, Chen D, Godding L. Assessment of metro ridership fluctuation caused by weather conditions in Asian context: Using archived weather and ridership data in Nanjing. J Transp Geogr. 2018;66(35): 356-68. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.10.023

Zhou M, Wang D, Li Q, Yue Y, Tu W, Cao R. Impacts of weather on public transport ridership: Results from mining data from different sources. Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol. 2017;75: 17-29. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.trc.2016.12.001

Ngo NS. Urban bus ridership, income, and extreme weather events. Transp Res Part D Transp Environ. 2019;77: 464-475. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.trd.2019.03.009

Miao Q, Welch EW, Sriraj PS. Extreme weather, public transport ridership and moderating effect of bus stop shelters. J Transp Geogr. 2019;74(August 2018): 125-33. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2018.11.007

Wei M, Corcoran J, Sigler T, Liu Y. Modeling the Influence of Weather on Transit Ridership: A Case Study from Brisbane, Australia. Transp Res Rec. 2018;2672(8): 505-10. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325583780_Modeling_the_Influence_of_Weather_on_Transit_Ridership_A_Case_Study_from_Brisbane_Australia

Tao S, Corcoran J, Rowe F, Hickman M. To travel or not to travel: ‘Weather’ is the question. Modelling the effect of local weather conditions on bus ridership. Transp Res Part C Emerg Technol. 2018;86(November 2017): 147-67. Available from: https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0968090X1730311X?token=183652E623BCA2594F34D3E507558B9D28AE96521574CA8032E702B32AFA614F9EFEBAA243AFD0421AEC9CFF832DA398

Chen D, Zhang Y, Gao L, Geng N, Li X. The impact of rainfall on the temporal and spatial distribution of taxi passengers. PLoS One. 2017;12(9): 1-16. Available from: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0183574

Rakhmatulloh AR, Dewi DIK, Wijayanti, Winarendri J. Effect of Weather for Demand of Online Transportation in Tembalang, Semarang. The 2nd International Conference on Smart City Innovation, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science; 2019. p. 1-8. Available from: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/396/1/012018/pdf

Safi H, Assemi B, Mesbah M, Ferreira L. An empirical comparison of four technology-mediated travel survey methods. J Traffic Transp Eng. 2017;4(1): 80-7. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.jtte.2015.12.003

Rudloff C. Can technologically assisted travel surveys improve mode choice modelling? Differences and improvements compared to travel conventional survey data. Proceedings of 7th Transport Research Arena TRA 2018, Vienna, Austria; 2018. p. 1-10. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324747315_Can_technologically_assisted_travel_surveys_improve_mode_choice_modelling_Differences_and_improvements_compared_to_travel_conventional_survey_data

Zhao F, Pereira FC, Ball R, Kim Y, Han Y, Zegras C, et al. Exploratory Analysis of a Smartphone-Based Travel Survey in Singapore. Transp Res Rec J Transp Res Board. 2015;2494(1): 45-56. Available from: https://dusp.mit.edu/sites/dusp.mit.edu/files/attachments/news/Smartphone-Based_Travel_Survey.pdf

Wermuth M, Sommer C, Kreitz M. Impact of new technologies in travel surveys. In: Transport Survey Quality and Innovation; 2003. p. 455-81. Available from: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4230/d9e9f2fdc2ad0e24057803b6449c4c5f3fd2.pdf

Zanni AM, Ryley TJ. The impact of extreme weather conditions on long distance travel behaviour. Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2015;77: 305-19. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.tra.2015.04.025

Arana P, Cabezudo S, Peñalba M. Influence of weather conditions on transit ridership: A statistical study using data from Smartcards. Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2014;59: 1-12. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856413002073?via%3Dihub

Stahel A, Ciari F, Axhausen K. Modeling impacts of weather conditions in agent-based transport microsimulations. Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C.; 2014. p. 1-21.

Aljamal MA. Comparison of Microscopic and Mesoscopic Traffic Modeling Tools for Evacuation Analysis. Master Thesis. Virginia Tech; 2017.

Heyndrickx C, Rodric F, Bösch PM, Ciari F. Benefits of informing travellers in case of extreme precipitation events, A model based case study for Zurich using MATSim; 2015. Available from: https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/bitstream/handle/20.500.11850/249865/ab1108.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Kostrzewski M. Implementation of distribution model of an international company with use of simulation method. Procedia Eng. 2017;192: 445-50. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2017.06.077

Burchart-Korol D, Folęga P. Impact of road transport means on climate change and human health in Poland. Promet – Traffic Transp. 2019;31(2): 195-204. Available from: https://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/3074/561561752

Quinn AD, Ferranti EJS, Beckford J, Dora JM. Adaptation Becoming Business as Usual: A Framework for Climate-Change-Ready Transport Infrastructure. Infrastructures. 2018;3(10): 1-12. Available from: https://www.mdpi.com/2412-3811/3/2/10

Schwanen T. Transport geography, climate change and space: Opportunity for new thinking. J Transp Geogr. 2019;81(September): 1-8. Available from: https://www.mdpi.com/2412-3811/3/2/10

Zare S, Hasheminejad N, Shirvan HE, Hemmatjo R, Sarebanzadeh K, Ahmadi S. Comparing Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) with selected thermal indices/environmental parameters during 12 months of the year. Weather Clim Extrem. 2018;19(March): 49-57. Available from: doi:10.1016/j.wace.2018.01.004

Published
2020-10-05
How to Cite
1.
Petrović D, Ivanović I, Đorić V, Jović J. Impact of Weather Conditions on Travel Demand – The Most Common Research Methods and Applied Models. PROMET [Internet]. 2020Oct.5 [cited 2020Oct.25];32(5):711-25. Available from: http://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/3499
Section
Articles