Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at Intersections

Xi Lu; Zhuanglin Ma; Steven I-Jy Chien; Ying Xiong

doi:10.7307/ptt.v32i4.3428

Xi Lu China Academy of Transportation Science, MOT
Zhuanglin Ma Chang’an University, College of Transportation Engineering
Steven I-Jy Chien New Jersey Institute of Technology, Chang'an University
Ying Xiong Xi’an Traffic Information Center

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v32i4.3428

Keywords: pedestrian, safety, crash injury severity, intersection, partial proportional odds model

Abstract

Pedestrian injury in crashes at intersections often results from complex interaction among various factors. The factor identification is a critical task for understanding the causes and improving the pedestrian safety. A total of 2,614 crash records at signalized and non-signalized intersections were applied. A Partial Proportional Odds (PPO) model was developed to examine the factors influencing Pedestrian Injury Severity (PIS) because it can accommodate the ordered response nature of injury severity. An elasticity analysis was conducted to quantify the marginal effects of contributing factors on the likelihood of PIS. For signalized intersections, seven explanatory variables significantly affect the likelihood of PIS, in which five explanatory variables violate the Proportional Odds Assumption (POA). Local driver, truck, holiday, clear weather, and hit-and-run lead to higher likelihood of severer PIS. For non-signalized intersections, six explanatory variables were found significant to the PIS, in which three explanatory variables violate the POA. Young and adult drivers, senior pedestrian, bus/van, divided road, holiday, and darkness tend to increase the likelihood of severer PIS. The vehicles of large size and heavy weight (e.g. truck, bus/van) are significant factors to the PIS at both signalized and non-signalized intersections. The proposed PPO model has demonstrated its effectiveness in identifying the effects of contributing factors on the PIS.

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Xi Lu, China Academy of Transportation Science, MOT

Xi Lu is a research associate of China Academy of Transportation Science, MOT. He holds Ph.D. degree from the Institute of Technology of Technology (IIT) in US. His areas of expertise include urban transport policy, transportation planning, traffic safety, and mobility performance modeling.

Steven I-Jy Chien, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Chang'an University

Steven I-Jy Chien is a professor of John A. Reif, Jr. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT). He is also a special term professor of S chool of Automobile, Chang’an University. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Maryland at College Park in US. Dr Chien’s current research activities and interests include: (1) travel time prediction in congested traffic networks, (2) mathematical and simulation modeling, (3) transportation system analysis, (4) intelligent transportation systems, (5) intermodal passenger transport, and (6) winter road maintenance planning and operation.

Ying Xiong, Xi’an Traffic Information Center

Ying Xiong is an engineer of Xi’an Traffic Information Center. She received her M.S. degree from Northwest University in China. Her primary research interest is Traffic Big Data Analysis.

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