Ordered Generalized Extreme Value Model as a Tool for Demand Modelling of Discretionary Trips

  • Mahmoud Elmorssy Istanbul Technical University
  • Huseyin Onur Tezcan Istanbul Technical University
Keywords: Ordered Generalized Extreme Value model, destination, departure time, discretionary trips, travel demand modelling, traditional four-step model, travel mode

Abstract

Although the four-step model is the most common method in transportation demand modelling, it is exposed to a considerable criticism in terms of representing the actual choice behaviours of travellers. For example, the four steps are presented in a fixed sequence and independently from each other. Such assumption may be correct in case of obligatory trips (e.g. work trips) where travellers’ behaviour has usually no effect on trip generation or trip distribution stages. However, in discretionary trips, they may simultaneously decide on various trip dimensions. This paper tries to overcome the limitations of traditional four-step model associated with discretionary trips by using a joint discrete choice modelling approach that represents destination, departure time and travel mode choices under a unified framework. The proposed model to be used is the Ordered Generalized Extreme Value model where potential spatial correlation among discretionary destinations can be considered as well. The research methodology has been tested by using shopping and entertainment trips data of Eskisehir city in Turkey. The proposed framework seemed to be more effective and offered an accurate alternative to the first three stages of the traditional four-step model in a setting with a limited number of discretionary destinations.

Author Biographies

Mahmoud Elmorssy, Istanbul Technical University

Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Transportation

Huseyin Onur Tezcan, Istanbul Technical University

Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Transportation

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Published
2020-03-13
How to Cite
1.
Elmorssy M, Tezcan HO. Ordered Generalized Extreme Value Model as a Tool for Demand Modelling of Discretionary Trips. PROMET [Internet]. 2020Mar.13 [cited 2020May29];32(2):193-05. Available from: http://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/3214
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Articles