Risk Assessment of Nautical Navigational Environment Based on Grey Fixed Weight Cluster

  • Yanfei Tian Wuhan University of Technology
  • Xuecheng Sun Guangzhou Marine Safety Administration
  • Lijia Chen Wuhan University of Technology
  • Liwen Huang Wuhan University of Technology
Keywords: nautical navigational environment, risk evaluation, grey fixed weight cluster, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy statistic,

Abstract

In order to set up a mathematical model suitable for nautical navigational environment risk evaluation and systematically master the navigational environment risk characteristics of the Qiongzhou Strait in a quantitative way, a risk assessment model with approach steps is set up based on the grey fixed weight cluster (GFWC). The evaluation index system is structured scientifically through both literature review and expert investigation. The relative weight of each index is designed to be obtained via fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP); Index membership degree of every grey class is proposed to be achieved by fuzzy statistics (FS) to avoid the difficulty of building whiten weight functions. By using the model, nautical navigational environment risk of the Qiongzhou Strait is determined at a “moderate” level according to the principle of maximum membership degree. The comprehensive risk evaluation of the Qiongzhou Strait nautical navigational environment can provide theoretical reference for implementing targeted risk control measures. It shows that the constructed GFWC risk assessment model as well as the presented steps are workable in case of incomplete information. The proposed strategy can excavate the collected experts’ knowledge mathematically, quantify the weight of each index and risk level, and finally lead to a comprehensive risk evaluation result. Besides, the adoptions of probability and statistic theory, fuzzy theory, aiming at solving the bottlenecks in case of uncertainty, will give the model a better adaptability and executability.

Author Biographies

Yanfei Tian, Wuhan University of Technology
Yanfei TIAN,1983-, male, now a Ph.D candidate in School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology (WUT), majoring in Transportation Information Engineering & Control and devoting himself to intelligent navigation and simulation technology, marine risk evaluation & safety guard, received his master's degree from WUT in 2013. TIAN had been also crew member on board ship and he is a 2nd Bridge Officer now.
Xuecheng Sun, Guangzhou Marine Safety Administration

Xuecheng SUN, 1984-, male, graduated from Dalian Maritime University at 2007,when majoring in navigation technology. Mr. SUN is now a maritime safety supervisor in Guangzhou Marine Safety Administration (Guangzhou MSA).

Lijia Chen, Wuhan University of Technology
Lijia CHEN,1979-, male, Ph.D, associate professor and master's supervisor in School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology (WUT), devoted himself to intelligent navigation and simulation technology, maritime safety guard, etc., received his doctor's degree from WUT in 2012.
Liwen Huang, Wuhan University of Technology
Liwen HUANG,1965-, male, Ph.D, professor and doctorial supervisor in School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology (WUT), devoting himself to intelligent navigation and simulation technology, maritime safety guard, etc., received his doctor's degree from Qingdao Ocean University (now renamed Ocean University of China) in 1997. Prof. HUANG had devoted himself to postdoctoral researches in the Ship and Ocean Engineering Post-doctoral Research Station located in Wuhan Transportation University (WTU, which is one of the predecessors of the current WUT) from 1997.09 to 2000.07, and in The Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, from 2000.08 to 2002.12.

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Published
2017-06-28
How to Cite
1.
Tian Y, Sun X, Chen L, Huang L. Risk Assessment of Nautical Navigational Environment Based on Grey Fixed Weight Cluster. PROMET [Internet]. 2017Jun.28 [cited 2019Dec.15];29(3):331-42. Available from: http://traffic.fpz.hr/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/2238
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